Vienna Woods Law & Economics

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How the White House’s AI Action Plan Could End Antitrust Overreach – By Asheesh Agarwal — October 13, 2025

How the White House’s AI Action Plan Could End Antitrust Overreach – By Asheesh Agarwal

[This post originally appeared at Truth on the Market on Oct. 8, 2025.]

The AI Action Plan unveiled in July by President Donald Trump could mark a turning point for U.S. antitrust policy. By directing the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to prioritize innovation, the plan offers a historic opportunity to lift onerous regulatory burdens, restore measured enforcement, and repudiate the overreaches of former FTC Chair Lina Khan’s regime.

To seize this moment, the FTC should pursue an alignment strategy to ensure that its guidance, regulations, and enforcement actions reflect the action plan’s pro-innovation vision, rather than the speculative anti-business theories of the past. In practice, the FTC should:

  1. publicly repudiate Khan-era guidance and affirm the pro-competitive benefits of common business practices;
  2. use its competition-advocacy tools to push states toward pro-innovation laws;
  3. withdraw from its misguided cooperation agreement with European and British regulators; and
  4. reevaluate ongoing litigation to ensure alignment with precedent and the action plan’s principles.

At the same time, the White House should broaden the plan’s reach to include the U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) and all forms of American innovation.

The Biden Administration’s Misaligned Antitrust Agenda

The AI Action Plan repudiates the excesses of the Khan era, when the commission’s antitrust-enforcement agenda was consistently misaligned with the realities of AI markets. At every turn, the FTC sought to manufacture competitive concerns in a sector defined by record investment, rapid innovation, and fierce global competition—especially from China.

For instance, the agency speculated that investments from large technology companies could raise problems related to access to data, talent, or network effects. It declared open-source AI models problematic because, at some future point, companies could choose to close those models. Acting on these views, the FTC launched a sweeping study of AI markets, partnered with European and British regulators to probe U.S. firms, and targeted ordinary transactions such as investments, hiring, or bundling services—often at the urging of anti-tech lawmakers.

The AI Action Plan Aligns with Innovation

By contrast, the AI Action Plan directs the FTC to realign its mission by embracing the private sector’s role in driving innovation. It requires the agency to review all investigations, orders, and decrees to ensure they do not “unduly burden AI innovation.”

To fully embrace the plan’s letter and spirit, the FTC should go even further. It should repudiate Khan–era guidance and publicly affirm the pro-competitive benefits of common business practices. By doing so, the commission would eliminate uncertainty and solidify this vision for U.S. AI leadership.

Acknowledge competition in AI markets

The agency should repudiate its prior statements expressing competitive concerns about AI markets and publicly recognize that these markets are flush with investment and rivalry, primarily among U.S. and Chinese firms.

Moreover, the FTC should publicly acknowledge that many routine practices spur innovation, including hiring top talent; investing in small companies; bundling multiple products; seeking access to data for training purposes and signing exclusive contracts of reasonable length. By publicly acknowledging these market realities, the agency’s leadership could help to assure the private sector that the FTC will no longer seek to manufacture antitrust claims.

new paper, for example, highlights the benefits of mergers and acquisitions to AI innovation. Whereas China uses intellectual-property theft and state industrial policy to advance its technologies, America’s innovation ecosystem relies on the robust flow of private capital to encourage investment, new entry, and patent filings.

Use competition advocacy to promote pro-innovation state policies

In 2025 alone, lawmakers introduced more than 1,000 AI-related regulation bills, with nearly 100 becoming law the prior year. In the absence of a federal AI moratorium, the FTC should advocate for laws that promote innovation and resist overly aggressive state lawsuits, preventing a patchwork of conflicting rules that could hobble growth.

Withdraw from joint agreements with foreign regulators

Under the leadership of Khan and former Assistant U.S. Attorney General Jonathan Kanter, respectively, the FTC and DOJ signed the “Joint Statement on Competition in Generative AI Foundation Models and AI Products” with their European counterparts, echoing ideological claims about the dangers of scale and concentration.

The joint statement repeats numerous fallacies about the dangers of data, scale, and concentration, and gives foreign regulators an excuse to target U.S. firms. The agencies should withdraw and renegotiate an agreement consistent with the AI Action Plan.

Reconsider lawsuits against US tech leaders

The FTC has already dropped its case against Microsoft’s Activision acquisition. Next, it should reevaluate its sweeping suits against Amazon, Meta, and others. No company is above scrutiny, but lawsuits that stretch precedent and ignore market realities could jeopardize U.S. AI leadership at a time when private firms are investing tens of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure.

Since the FTC first brought these suits, markets have changed dramatically, output and innovation have skyrocketed, and new companies—including Chinese competitors—have gained global prominence. The FTC should reconsider whether its law-enforcement actions continue to comport with the AI Action Plan, precedent, and the national interest.

Extending this Alignment Strategy to the DOJ and Other Agencies

Similarly, the White House should expand the AI Action Plan’s alignment strategy to cover all FTC activities, the DOJ, and all forms of innovation. For instance, the DOJ is also pursuing aggressive cases against companies that are investing heavily in AI infrastructure. Should these suits result in breakups or significant constraints on lawful business practices, there are serious questions as to whether the firms or their successors would retain the resources, talent, and capacity to absorb the attendant risks that come with investing heavily in AI infrastructure.

Finally, the plan’s logic should extend beyond AI. No agency should “unduly burden” any form of innovation. Expanding the directive to fields like biotech and quantum computing would send a powerful message: the federal government is united behind a single alignment strategy—ensuring American innovation leads the world and secures U.S. technological dominance for the future.

* Asheesh Agarwal is president of Agarwal Strategies LLC and an advisor to the American Edge Project.  See more about Mr. Agarwal here.

The Hidden Costs of Untimely Antitrust Enforcement – By Asheesh Agarwal — May 1, 2025

The Hidden Costs of Untimely Antitrust Enforcement – By Asheesh Agarwal

[This post originally appeared at Real Clear Markets on April 28, 2025.]

Businesses need legal and regulatory certainty to invest and innovate. Across the economy, legal predictability allows companies to allocate risk, to invest resources for the long term, and, with luck, one day to reap the rewards of successful new products.

Unfortunately, an ongoing federal lawsuit threatens to undermine that certainty for large swaths of the business community. In a trial that began last week, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) seeks to unwind two deals that closed more than a decade ago, Meta’s (then Facebook’s) acquisitions of Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014. Although the FTC carefully reviewed and raised no objections to either deal at the time, the agency now speculates that, but for the deals, those companies could have grown into viable separate businesses. But the hidden costs of this “retroactive regulatory revisionism” are high – undermining capital formation, innovation, and growth.

Imperiled Investment and Innovation

Setting aside the suit’s merits, the case could damage the nation’s innovation ecosystem by discouraging companies from investing in startups and smaller firms out of concern that, years later, the government could attempt to unwind those deals. Such investments often promote competition by providing small companies with critical financing and technical expertise, while allowing larger companies to bring new products to market more quickly.

In the early 20th Century, for example, John Deere sold planters and buggies, but its tractors flopped in the marketplace. To satisfy its customer base, in 1918, Deere purchased a smaller company that had developed the first successful gasoline tractor. This investment benefited consumers: in its first year, Deere’s distribution network and marketing expertise roughly tripled the tractor’s sales and over time Deere’s investments turned its green tractors into global icons.

Other examples abound. In 1926, General Motors purchased an auto body company to secure its supply chain. In 1928, Boeing Air Transport purchased a west coast airline to expand its national reach. In 1987, Microsoft purchased Forethought, the creator of PowerPoint, to integrate into its software suite. And in 2006, Google purchased YouTube, which had started as a dating app that paid women $20 to upload videos, as an investment in user-generated content. In every instance, the acquiring company invested significant resources to improve and expand delivery of the acquired company’s products, and in every instance, consumers benefited from increased output and innovation.

Notwithstanding each merger’s pro-competitive effects, the government could have challenged each one on grounds that, but for the merger, the acquired firm would have grown to compete with the acquiring company in the same markets. This type of speculative prognostication could have discouraged many beneficial mergers and, going forward, could chill pro-competitive investments.

Reduced Stability

The lawsuit also could undermine public confidence in the stability of the antitrust agencies. In announcing that the revised Merger Guidelines would stay in place, for now, the FTC explained that “stability across administrations of both parties has thus been the name of the game … no business can plan for the future on the basis of guidelines they know are one election away from rescission … stability is also good for the enforcement agencies. The wholesale rescission and reworking of guidelines is time consuming and expensive.”

The FTC’s current lawsuit, however, contravenes the importance of stability. In 2012 and 2014, the FTC carefully reviewed and raised no objections to either purchase, consistent with the congressional design of the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act. Now, many years later, the FTC is using scarce taxpayer resources on a months-long trial to reverse a prior decision, one made with care, and one that a company relied upon to invest billions of dollars in innovations.

Of course, this is not to say that a consummated merger should never receive scrutiny after the fact, but such reversals should happen very rarely and for good cause, such as some sort of misrepresentation, particularly after so much time has passed. As a federal court recently explained in evaluating some ad tech mergers, “it would be a substantial step to find that an acquisition violated the Sherman Act after it was reviewed and approved by federal antitrust regulators.”

Given that the FTC is now looking back more than a dozen years, nothing prevents today’s enforcers from looking back even further in time, or future enforcers from reviewing today’s cleared transactions. Are any mergers ever truly secure?

Empowered Overzealous Regulators

Finally, the FTC’s lawsuit also disregards another concept embraced by the current Administration: regulatory humility. The recent Executive Order to Restore Competition to U.S. Markets ordered agency heads, in coordination with the FTC and Department of Justice (DOJ) to identify any regulations that impose anti-competitive restraints. At the same time, DOJ created a task force to “advocate for the elimination of anticompetitive state and federal laws and regulations that undermine free market competition and harm consumers, workers, and businesses.”

The lawsuit, on the other hand, empowers current and future antitrust enforcers to play regulatory roulette with the economy. If the lawsuit succeeds, government agencies will have a greater ability to unwind prior deals, second-guess their predecessors, and ignore robust evidence about increased output and innovation, all based on their belief that they could have organized entire industries better than the private sector or their predecessors.

In his 1974 speech accepting the Nobel Prize in Economics, Friedrich von Hayek, the author of The Road to Serfdom, urged economists and regulators to exercise caution in light of limits of human knowledge. As he explained, “[i]f man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in [economics] . . . he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible.” In the face of such uncertainty, the government should exercise significant caution before it attempts to rewrite the past.

Asheesh Agarwal is an advisor to the American Edge Project and an alumnus of both the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

From A to Y: Antitrust Notes from the ABA and Y Combinator – By Asheesh Agarwal — April 23, 2025

From A to Y: Antitrust Notes from the ABA and Y Combinator – By Asheesh Agarwal

[Note: This post originally appeared at Truth on the Market on April 15, 2025]

April 4 marked the end of a notable week in global competition policy. The American Bar Association’s (ABA) Antitrust Section held its annual spring meeting, while Y Combinator hosted a virtual “Little Tech Competition Summit.” At the same time, Congress held two competition hearings, the U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) hosted an event on competition and speech, and senior antitrust enforcers spoke at an event put on by Capitol Forum and FGS Global.

With all the activity, even the staunchest neo-Brandeisian may have come to appreciate the value of occasional event consolidation.

Despite the varying locales and interests, many common areas of agreement appeared to emerge.

Artificial Intelligence

Across the board, many speakers agreed on the benefits of a light-touch approach to artificial intelligence (AI). At the ABA, several panelists noted the Trump administration’s focus on reducing AI’s regulatory constraints, rather than attempting to micromanage AI development, while at other events, Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chairman Andrew Ferguson stated that existing laws should suffice to police any concerns relating to AI. Still, panelists expressed concern that the states are considering very disparate approaches to AI, some of which could needlessly impede development.

In the same vein, at Y Combinator, speakers criticized former President Joe Biden’s AI safety policy and encouraged Congress to protect people’s property rights—such as in their personally identifiable information and copyrighted material—without creating a burdensome regulatory regime.

There were glimmers of hope from across the pond. While acknowledging that Europe takes a “structural approach” to markets and that the EU’s AI Act prioritizes “product safety” over innovation, several European speakers acknowledged that AI partnerships can promote competition, that competition reviews should conclude expeditiously, and that Europe has failed to identify any genuine competitive problem, or even to define “AI markets” at all. European speakers also acknowledged that Europe needs deep capital markets and praised portions of the Draghi Report, which broadly speaking advocates for a lighter touch approach to competition in Europe.

At the same time, Ferguson sharply criticized Europe for targeting U.S. firms, labeling Europe’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) a tax on American companies.

The Consumer Welfare Standard

Among domestic speakers and attendees, the consumer welfare standard received broad bipartisan support—with one notable exception. During a showcase panel at the ABA, the Progressive Policy Institute’s Diana Moss encouraged the antitrust agencies to return to the consumer welfare standard as the touchstone for antitrust enforcement. Upon hearing these comments, one attendee, Columbia University law professor Tim Wu, an architect of former President Biden’s antitrust agenda, started to boo loudly.

Notwithstanding this jeer, the current administration appears to agree on the standard’s benefits. At Y Combinator, Assistant U.S. Attorney General for Antitrust Gail Slater agreed that the consumer welfare standard represents antitrust’s legal standard, rather than the amorphous concept of “market realities.” She correctly noted that the consumer welfare standard concerns more than just price competition, as it also encompasses competition based on quality, variety, and innovation in new products.

Merger Policy

In another area of consensus, many speakers and attendees applauded the Trump administration’s more grounded approach to mergers, which recognizes that acquisitions can improve efficiency and capital flows. At the ABA, many speakers welcomed the new administration’s openness to settlements and anticipated that the agencies would ground challenges in traditional theories and economic evidence, rather than progressive prognostications.

At other events, Slater expressed an openness to meaningful consent decrees that would resolve competitive concerns about mergers, while Ferguson affirmed that he opposes any ideological biases against M&A activity. Such a practical, traditional enforcement approach should allow pro-competitive deals to move forward, while conserving resources to focus on transactions that raise genuine concerns.

In the hallways, many attendees expressed surprise that the agencies are, for now, keeping the new merger guidelines and Hart-Scott-Rodino reporting form, with hope that the agencies would revisit these documents over time, particularly given the emphasis that both the White House and DOJ have placed on reducing barriers to competition.

The Tech Sector

Finally, the various events also included some areas of agreement regarding the tech sector. Most notably, virtually every domestic speaker endorsed law enforcement, rather than regulation, as the proper approach to the tech sector. Few, if any, speakers called for a return of the various Biden-era legislative proposals that would have imported European regulatory concepts into American antitrust law.

Ferguson, for example, stated that he prefers antitrust enforcement over regulation, as ex-post enforcement produces better economic outcomes. In this regard, both Slater and Ferguson committed to vigorous enforcement of the antitrust laws, including robust enforcement in the technology sector. Slater rightly opposed special treatment for “national champions,” while Ferguson noted that M&A provides “little tech” with needed capital.

For these reasons, Americans should have confidence that, going forward, U.S. competition policy will return to its roots of measured antitrust enforcement, rooted in precedent and economics, based on the welfare of consumers while keeping in mind the global competitive landscape.

Asheesh Agarwal is an advisor to the American Edge Project and an alumnus of both the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

How the Trump Administration’s Antitrust Agenda Can Tackle Some of America’s Biggest Problems – By Asheesh Agarwal — April 11, 2025

How the Trump Administration’s Antitrust Agenda Can Tackle Some of America’s Biggest Problems – By Asheesh Agarwal

[This post originally appeared in The Federalist on April 8, 2025.]

In its first months, the Trump administration’s competition policy is off to a fast start. Its antitrust enforcers have disavowed expansive rulemakings and prioritized growth to reduce the national debt.

As it settles, the administration should continue to target the nation’s most critical concerns, including regulatory excess, foreign protectionism, and China. By working with U.S. companies, rather than against them, the administration can preserve American values, security, and global leadership.

More Enforcement, Less Bureaucracy

The U.S. devotes two agencies to competition policy: the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Antitrust Division and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), an “independent” agency. For reasons both fiscal and constitutional, the administration should support efforts to transfer the FTC’s functions to DOJ and eventually eliminate the duplicative agency.

The FTC’s chairman, Andrew Ferguson, has argued that “Independent agencies are not good for democracy.” Future historians will marvel that the courts ever validated the FTC, a progressive-era contrivance that consolidates executive, legislative, and judicial powers in five commissioners. Under President Joe Biden, three commissioners purported to invalidate millions of private contracts and the laws of 47 states. Consolidation could prevent such overreach.

Moreover, a merger would save money while increasing enforcement. The FTC spends more than $183 million annually on bureaucratic functions unrelated to frontline enforcement, including dozens of employees in the press, legislative affairs, and commissioners’ offices. This figure excludes the policy and adjudicative staffs — the total bureaucratic cost is much higher.

A pending bill, the One Agency Act, would consolidate antitrust functions within DOJ, improving enforcement and paving the way to transfer consumer protection functions.

Regulatory Excess

Upon retaking office, President Donald Trump moved swiftly to reduce regulatory burdens. The White House froze new regulations and repealed Biden’s onerous AI executive order. The FTC “committed to ending all of the rules and regulations that are no longer necessary.” Building on decades of competition advocacy, DOJ launched a task force to combat anticompetitive regulations.

To date, the FTC has moved more cautiously. The FTC is adhering to the restrictive 2023 merger guidelines, promulgated under Biden, and greenlit a new rule for reporting mergers, even as Congress considered a resolution of disapproval.

As the agencies staff up, they should reduce regulatory burdens. The FTC’s original merger form would have imposed annual costs estimated at more than $2.3 billion and the final still imposes expensive reporting burdens. Similarly, the merger guidelines will reduce capital flows and allow the government to block deals without evidence.

By reversing the prior regime, the administration could kickstart the economy and allow U.S. companies to improve their global competitiveness.

With Friends Like These …

For years, Europe has targeted American companies through onerous laws like the Digital Markets Act (“DMA”), Digital Services TaxGeneral Data Protection Regulation, and AI Act. These laws usually exclude European and Chinese companies from their ambit and have enabled regulators to fine U.S. firms tens of billions of euros for routine conduct, a pure wealth transfer from American workers and shareholders to European bureaucrats. Regarding a multibillion dollar penalty against Apple, Europe noted that its fines “help to finance the [European Union] and reduce the burden for [its] taxpayers.”

Shockingly, the Biden administration supported Europe’s efforts. The antitrust agencies collaborated with foreign regulators and undermined the due process rights of U.S. companies abroad.

Fortunately, Trump changed course. He directed trade officials to discourage improper digital services taxes. At an AI Summit, Vice President J.D. Vance blasted “reports that some foreign governments are considering tightening the screws on U.S. tech companies … excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry.”

The antitrust agencies should combat the global contagion of European-style regulations. They should advocate for sensible competition policy that protects consumers, rather than industrial policy.

The China Challenge

China is spending $1.4 trillion to dethrone America as the world’s technological superpower while also stealing $500 billion annually in U.S. tech secrets. China now leads the U.S. in 57 of 64 critical technologies, including quantum censors, high-performance computing, and AI algorithms. A commission found that China could supplant the U.S. in AI by 2030, and Trump himself called DeepSeek a “wake-up call.”

In response, American companies are investing heavily in new technologies. As China seeks to embed its technology around the globe, Meta is providing open-source AI alternatives. Google is investing $75 billion in AI in 2025 alone. Apple is investing $500 billion in the U.S., and Microsoft recently unveiled the first quantum chip.

At the same time, some policymakers worry that tech platforms may limit speech. Platforms have reduced the spread of certain news stories. Some companies have admitted that they mistakenly bowed to relentless pressure from senior government officials.

Since 2020, the market has evolved: Elon Musk purchased Twitter; Meta adopted Musk’s content moderation model; Trump himself launched Truth Social; and, for better or worse, foreign-owned platforms maintain popularity. Moreover, upon retaking office, Trump signed an executive order prohibiting federal employees from unconstitutionally abridging speech, and the FTC launched a speech inquiry.

Against this backdrop, measured antitrust enforcement appears the wisest course, neither treating tech companies as “national champions” immune to review nor seeking unprecedented punishments. The agencies should enforce the antitrust laws vigorously but allow companies to innovate and invest. In terms of both policy and precedent, does it make sense to dismember Meta over mergers cleared and consummated a decade ago, unwind Microsoft’s vertical acquisition of Activision Blizzard, or break apart Google for overly long exclusive contracts? Such overly aggressive postures could kneecap domestic innovation and signal to foreign governments that they can hammer U.S. companies with impunity.

Trump appears to agree that enforcers should consider the global landscape. He noted that “I give [Google] a lot of credit … [we] want to have great companies — we don’t want China to have these companies.” When asked whether to break up Google, he responded “If you do that, are you going to destroy the company? What you can do without breaking it up is make sure it’s more fair.”

Finally, a measured approach would promote free speech by encouraging the adoption of American technology. Consider the alternative. Chinese AI models actively censor historical events and spread state propaganda. To counter such lies, the U.S. needs the world to adopt American tech.

By tackling America’s most significant challenges, the administration has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to promote investment, preserve technological leadership, and check China’s antidemocratic global ambitions for decades to come.

Asheesh Agarwal is an advisor to the American Edge Project and an alumnus of both the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

As AI Advances, U.S. Must Choose the Path of Regulation or Innovation – By Asheesh Agarwal — March 8, 2025

As AI Advances, U.S. Must Choose the Path of Regulation or Innovation – By Asheesh Agarwal

[Note: This post was originally published by the American Edge Project on March 7, 2025]

As the rise of powerful Chinese AI models, such as DeepSeek’s r1and Alibaba’s Qwen 2.5, have laid bare, U.S. policymakers must choose a pathway for artificial intelligence (AI). One path, littered with regulations and roadblocks, treats AI as a threat to manage rather than an opportunity to nourish. Down the other path, policymakers and the private sector partner together to promote innovation and maintain our global technological leadership.

The Road to Nowhere

As Vice President Vance recently explained to the AI Summit in Paris, “excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry just as it’s taking off.” The European Union’s (EU) AI Act, for instance, prohibits certain AI functions that the EU deems an “unacceptable risk” to citizens. The Act carries enormous fines for noncompliance, up to 35 million euros or seven percent of their global annual revenues. Canada’s Competition Bureau has cited this Act “as a model for Canada,” and even here at home, the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) former chair wants to continue the Biden administration’s AI policies, which required companies to pretest models before their release and which used antitrust law to limit AI investments.

The evidence, however, shows that excessive regulations can stifle innovation. Europe’s AI sector lags far behind the United States; from 2023 to 2024, more than $47 billion in investments flowed to U.S. generative AI firms, while European firms raised only $8.8 billion. In a recent letter, 150 European business leaders complained that the AI Act could damage Europe’s long-term competitiveness. Another official worried that American companies were outpacing their European rivals: “I’m not saying it’s good but in America you have a lot of AI and no regulation, in Europe you have no AI and a lot of regulation.”

Here at home, these types of policies would hamstring American innovators and cede leadership to Chinese companies. President Trump has called DeepSeek, an open-source tool developed by a Chinese company using less data and less sophisticated chips that many U.S. models, a “wake-up call” for America’s tech companies. Indeed, the evidence belies the need for heavy-handed regulations. In 2023 alone, nearly 900 new AI companies entered the market and venture capital soared to $67.2 billion, while U.S. AI patent filings surged 621 percent from 2018 to 2022. Earlier this month, large U.S. companies committed to investing hundreds of billions more into AI infrastructure and research.

Moreover, the FTC itself found no competitive problems in the AI sector. In a report issued in the Biden Administration’s waning days, the agency found that “AI technology is rapidly evolving” and that the sector’s evolution will determine whether competitive concerns arise in the future. The agency also found that small companies can benefit from contracts with large tech companies, such as by gaining access to critical training, testing, computing resources and optimized hardware.

The Path to Prosperity

To promote innovation, policymakers should continue to encourage light-touch AI regulation, ground antitrust enforcement in evidence of consumer harm, invest in critical AI inputs such as energy and talent, and collaborate with our allies to counter authoritarian threats.

Beyond these touchstones, the United States should continue to encourage the development and deployment of both open and closed-source AI models, both to promote competition and to safeguard our national security. In terms of competition, the FTC itself has explained that “open-weights models have the potential to drive innovation, reduce costs, increase consumer choice, and generally benefit the public – as has been seen with open-source software,” while Canadian regulators found that the “increasing availability of open-source AI technology and public cloud infrastructure makes AI development more accessible.”

In terms of national security, the United States must provide the world with alternatives to China’s models. For years, China has sought to leverage technology to supplant the United States as the world’s preeminent technological superpower and gain economic and national security superiority over the Western world. China seeks to achieve its goal, in part, by embedding its technology, and therefore its authoritarian values, into the global technological infrastructure, including Huawei’s telecommunications equipment and now DeepSeek’s open-source AI tools. The United States must develop and deploy both open- and closed-source models to ensure democratic principles shape AI’s future. Ceding this ground risks allowing China’s authoritarian vision to define global AI and perhaps to embed Chinese-built models with our allies.

In Paris, the Vice President warned against “paralyzing one of the most promising technologies we have seen in generations.” America has always prioritized innovation over regulation—and when it comes to AI, America should follow the same course.

Asheesh Agarwal is an advisor to the American Edge Project and an alumnus of both the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

FTC Alumni Response to FTC/DOJ RFI on Serial Acquisitions — June 26, 2024

FTC Alumni Response to FTC/DOJ RFI on Serial Acquisitions

Posted by

Theodore A. Gebhard*

On May 23, 2024, the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission announced that they were jointly launching an inquiry into the potential competitive effects of serial acquisitions and roll-up strategies. The inquiry will assess the potential antitrust liability arising from such acquisitions. The Agencies’ public announcement defines serial acquisitions and roll-up strategies as follows:

“Serial acquisitions and roll-ups are a form of corporate consolidation where a company becomes larger — and potentially dominant — by buying several smaller firms in the same or related sectors or industries.”

The link below is to a letter written by former federal antitrust enforcers to the DOJ and the FTC responding to the Agencies’ request for comments on their inquiry. The former enforcers urge the Agencies to conduct the inquiry in such a way so as to build confidence in its objectivity and comprehensiveness. I am a signatory on the letter.  I encourage readers of this post to read the letter in its entirety. TAG


FTC Alumni Comments on Serial Acquisitions


[Note: The alumni comments are cross-posted at Truth on the Market.]


* Theodore A. Gebhard is an attorney and economist.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

FTC Alumni Comments on Proposed Hart-Scott-Rodino Form — September 26, 2023

FTC Alumni Comments on Proposed Hart-Scott-Rodino Form

Posted by

Theodore A. Gebhard

The Biden Federal Trade Commission has proposed revisions to the Hart-Scott-Rodino reporting form required of all parties proposing to merge and/or proposing to acquire the assets of another company, whenever certain threshold metrics are present. In response to this proposal a number of former FTC officials, of which I am one, submitted comments to the Commission with our views on the proposed revisions.  The former officials suggest several ways by which the FTC could strengthen the evidentiary and legal foundations in support of the proposed revisions.  A link to the submission is below, and I encourage the reader of this post to read it in its entirety. TAG

FTC Alumni Comments on proposed HSR form  

[Note: The submission is also cross-posted at the International Center for Law & Economics and at Liberty & Markets.]

* Theodore A. Gebhard is an attorney and economist.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

Our New Space Race – Review by Asheesh Agarwal — July 5, 2023

Our New Space Race – Review by Asheesh Agarwal

[Note: This post originally appeared at Law & Liberty on June 29, 2023]

The current space race extends far beyond Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Richard Branson. There’s a New Zealand tinkerer without a college degree who built a billion-dollar rocket company. A Ukrainian multimillionaire who made his fortune off sketchy dating websites. A soothsaying IT executive who attracted millions in investment through relentless optimism, all while blowing up rocket after rocket.

Ashlee Vance’s latest book, When the Heavens Went on Sale: The Misfits and Geniuses Racing to Put Space Within Reach, is an ode to capitalism, risk, and innovation. As Vance relays, the private sector has created the new rockets and satellites that are spreading the benefits of space commerce across the planet. Though still an important partner, the government lacks the mindset or motive to discard old habits and embrace new technologies. Vance’s book should give pause to anyone who would expunge the profit motive from space, overregulate space or any other tech sector, or rely solely on the government to innovate.

Vance traces the origins of several space companies, starting with the most successful of the new breed, SpaceX. Musk “willed SpaceX into existence” by investing $100 million of his own money and rejecting “the ‘truths’ held evident by the old, government-backed aerospace industry.” Instead, SpaceX created reusable rockets, such as the Falcon 9, that have now launched hundreds of times. Musk’s endeavor was not without risk. After multiple launch failures, Musk “was burning through his personal fortune at an alarming rate” and at one point had to launch his last rocket within eight weeks to survive.

Other companies endured by raising prodigious amounts of money via US capital markets. Rocket Labs had developed smaller rockets that reliably ferry satellites into orbit at a low cost. The company started in New Zealand, of all places, and took off in part because the government was “trying to run a pro-business government and quickly embraced the idea of New Zealand being at the forefront of such exciting technology.” Within a few months, in fact, New Zealand created a pro-market regulatory framework and negotiated bilateral treaties with the United States. Eventually, Rocket Labs set up a second headquarters in Los Angeles to help secure talent and capital. As its founder, Peter Beck, noted, “Goddammit, America gets s— done. There is no other place on Earth where a Kiwi could come into town and walk away with enough money to start a rocket company.”

All this competition is, per the book’s title, putting space within reach. Satellite and launch costs have plummeted. The cost of a satellite has fallen from around a billion dollars to as little as one hundred thousand dollars. With lower launch costs, the number of satellites has doubled (to around 5,000) in the last two years and could rise to 100,000 in the next decade. These new satellites will allow companies to provide new and cheaper services and to provide reliable internet connectivity around the globe. Already, private satellites have detected illegal deforestation in the Amazon, Russian military buildups, and Chinese missile sites. In what Vance calls “the first true Space War,” commercial space companies “gave Ukraine advantages that humbled the Russian military and altered the course of the conflict.”

For many of their employees, these space companies are infused with an almost religious sense of purpose. Musk, famously, argues that humans must become a multi-planet species to survive. Another company’s senior executive, a NASA alumnus, believes himself on a mission from God to spread human intelligence throughout the universe. Planet Labs, which started in an actual garage, pioneered the development of inexpensive shoebox-size satellites; prior to a launch from India, the company bought 88 statues of the Hindu deity Ganesh because it “felt sure that the idols would bring good luck.” These entrepreneurs view access to space “as a noble, necessary quest that would fulfill humankind’s destiny.”

At times, Heavens reads like a novel by Andy Weir, author of The Martian and Project Hail Mary. Enterprising engineers must tackle complex aerospace problems but here in real life, they must keep costs as low as possible. Should they make the rocket’s body of standard aluminum or carbon fiber, which is lighter but harder to shape? Should they use solid or liquid fuel, or some sort of hybrid? How many satellites can one rocket launch at once and how long should the satellites last? Different companies approach these questions with a view toward different customers and price points, but the answers help drive innovation.

These sorts of challenges also help to clarify why the private sector has taken the lead in space. Through numerous interviews with both entrepreneurs and civil servants, Vance explains why the government has been unable to overcome challenges, or to innovate generally, as quickly or successfully as private companies. In three words, mission, mindset, and motive.

One NASA executive, Pete Worden, explained that NASA’s mission is (or was) to provide jobs for the constituents of key members of Congress, rather than to explore space. As Worden put it, “A self-licking ice cream cone serves no other purpose than to keep itself alive.” Pork-barrel politics often led NASA’s congressional minders to kill innovative programs. In one instance, insurgent NASA interns were told to hide a program to send a smartphone into space, just to test how well consumer electronics could operate there, out of concern that NASA brass would bury the program in red tape. In contrast, as a NASA alumnus put it, a private company “can’t raise billions of dollars and spend infinite time” without launching anything.

The government’s mindset also discourages innovation. Perhaps concerned about congressional reprimands, NASA and the Department of Defense developed an ethos that “every rocket and every satellite had to work and they would pay whatever it cost to ensure that happened.” An explosion would lead to hearings, oversight, and adverse publicity. This “zero-defects culture” led to endless testing and a reluctance to try new things, literally making the perfect the enemy of the good. Beck, the New Zealander, “thought that JPL [the Jet Propulsion Laboratory] would have the frenetic buzz of a start-up with some people running around trying to hit their deadlines and others sleeping in the corridors after pulling all-nighters. Instead, he found bureaucracy and malaise.”

This bureaucratic mentality also infused many of the government’s old-school contractors. After talking to a defense contractor, one space executive explained that “I was proposing some ideas. I can still hear [the contractor’s] words: ‘We don’t do anything unless the government tells us to and they pay for it.’” Among the new breed of space companies, on the other hand, the companies and their investors understand that some failures and explosions go with the territory of trying to innovate.

Finally, for the same reasons that capitalism works and collectivism fails, private companies have more of a motive to succeed. This is not to suggest that the excellent employees at NASA or any other agency lack ambition, drive, or skill. Given a clear mission and consistent funding, NASA has done and can do great things. Still, as Vance details, the profit motive, the prospect of a stock option paying off, incentivizes people to work for months on end for little pay, to travel to some desolate island or frozen tundra to try to launch a hunk of metal miles into the atmosphere, to risk their mortgages and sometimes their marriages, with no guarantee of success, for the chance to earn a hefty reward and to say to their friends and family that they helped to build something great and historic.

Different motives may drive those who are already wealthy. As Vance points out, the space billionaires could have spent their entire fortunes buying islands, setting up themselves and their heirs for generations, and enjoying every manner of Epicurean delight. No doubt the quest for personal glory plays a role (apparently, investors love to show off their rockets to friends). Still, these entrepreneurs are risking their reputations and fortunes to pursue a dream that could benefit all mankind. How many of us would choose the same path?

Many observers compare these still early days of the new space race to the early days of the tech boom several decades ago. If so, the new space companies should take a moment to examine how yesterday’s tech darlings are now under siege from regulators at home and abroad. How long before the progressives and anti-capitalists, those who proclaim that “you didn’t build that, somebody else built that,” come for these space companies? How long before the Federal Trade Commission, which has already taken an aggressive stance against aerospace mergers that don’t involve direct competitors, tries to declare SpaceX an illegal monopoly or Planet Labs guilty of unfair competition? Rocket Labs built a home abroad in part because New Zealand’s government welcomed it with open arms—will the United States remain a place where “s— gets done” or become a place where bureaucracy and red tape push companies overseas?

The administrative state presents a significant risk to the growth of the space economy. Regulators “cannot keep pace with the launches or the wills of the people leading the various companies” and competitors are already leaning on regulators to erect barriers to competition. As Vance describes, quoting a space historian, “Back in the day, the United States could spin up an entire missile program and the requisite launch infrastructure in eighteen months. ‘We couldn’t even write the environmental impact study in that amount of time now.’” Rest assured, if the United States hamstrings its space sector, other countries, including India and New Zealand, stand ready to welcome more operations to their shores. And if we truly abandon our leadership in space, there is little doubt that China and Russia will fill the void.

Historians describe an earlier era of exploration as motivated by gold, God, and glory. When scholars write the history of this era of space commerce and exploration, they likely will write that space capitalists led humanity to a brighter future—if we let them.

Asheesh Agarwal is an advisor to the American Edge Project and an alumnus of both the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

FTC Alumni Comments on the Confidentiality of the Agency’s Investigations — April 13, 2023

FTC Alumni Comments on the Confidentiality of the Agency’s Investigations

Posted by

Theodore A. Gebhard*

The link below is to a letter written this month by former FTC officials expressing concern about possible lapses in the Agency’s integrity and fairness in keeping business information confidential during investigations. In several instances, FTC personnel may have leaked confidential information, or their analyses of confidential information, to the media about ongoing investigations. The former officials, of which I am one, urge the Commission to reassure the public, and to remind all agency personnel, that the Agency’s investigations will and must remain confidential. I encourage readers of this post to read the letter in its entirety. TAG

FTC Alumni Comments on Confidentiality and Due process

* Theodore A. Gebhard is an attorney and economist.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

FTC Alumni Comments on the Commission’s Proposed Non-Compete Clause Rule — March 21, 2023

FTC Alumni Comments on the Commission’s Proposed Non-Compete Clause Rule

Posted by

Theodore A. Gebhard*

The Federal Trade Commission has begun a rulemaking process with a stated goal of promulgating and implementing a Non-Compete Clause Rule that would prohibit employers from contractually conditioning hiring on an agreement that the employee will not render his or her services to a competing employer, should there come a time where the employee no longer works for the initial employer. In connection with the rulemaking procedure, several former FTC Officials, of which I am one, submitted comments to the Commission in which the Officials express a number of concerns with the rulemaking process and with the proposed rule’s potential impact on the FTC’s ability to fulfill its mission. A link to the submission is below, and I encourage readers of this post to read the submission in its entirely. TAG

FTC Alumni Comments on Non-Compete Proposed Rule

* Theodore A. Gebhard is an attorney and economist.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

Big Questions About Tech Regulation – By Asheesh Agarwal — January 6, 2023

Big Questions About Tech Regulation – By Asheesh Agarwal

[Note: This post originally appeared at Law & Liberty on Jan. 4, 2023]

What balance ought we seek in corralling the worst of tech companies while not killing innovation? At a time when everyone has a beef with tech, this question has never been more important. Republicans want tech to allow more speech, Democrats want tech to moderate more content. Competitors want to break up the biggest companies, customers want to pay them less. Tech’s spouse wants it to clean out the garage.

Still, nearly everyone recognizes tech’s value to the economy and to the country. Even as policymakers propose new rules, no one wants to “throw out the baby with the bathwater.” So, what principles should apply to tech regulation? A sixteenth-century German idiom has only limited utility as a touchstone for regulating a quarter of the U.S. economy.

As an alternate framework, policymakers should ask themselves certain key questions as they evaluate new rules. By inquiring about these topics, policymakers could ensure that they tailor any proposals to address genuine gaps in the market and the law and continue to promote innovation and investment.

Are there existing processes in place to corral the perceived troubling behavior?

Before enacting any new law, policymakers should ask themselves whether existing laws and processes already address any troubling behavior. If so, let those processes play out fully and enact new rules only if they fall short, because new rules could have damaging unforeseen and unintended consequences, particularly in such a dynamic and consequential sector of the economy

When it comes to tech, both market dynamics and current laws are working to corral troubling behavior. In terms of speech, the market is already adjusting to allow more fulsome discourse online, irrespective of political viewpoint. Elon Musk, a prominent advocate of free speech, has purchased Twitter and released a number of “Twitter Files” revealing how Twitter has amplified or downplayed certain controversial stories. Conservative platforms such as TruthSocial, Gettr, and Parler are widely available and have gained millions of users. Meta itself has acknowledged past mistakes and vowed to improve its transparency.

In terms of competitive concerns, the existing antitrust laws can address any genuine anticompetitive conduct that harms consumers. Every major tech platform—Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—is facing significant antitrust litigation, investigation, or both. If a court finds that these companies are harming consumers or reducing innovation, they can impose a range of significant remedies that include treble damages or even partial divestment. Policymakers should enact new laws only if the courts find that these companies are harming competition and that the current laws fail to provide adequate remedies. Otherwise, new rules could cause more harm than good. 

Is the proposal good for consumers?

At a very basic level, policymakers should ask themselves whether a given proposal is good for consumers, or if the proposal is mere rent-seeking designed to help other companies at the expense of their competitors, and often consumers.

For decades, U.S. antitrust law has centered on the venerable, bipartisan “consumer welfare standard,” which evaluates business conduct based on whether the practice helps or harms consumers. Europe, in contrast, uses the “abuse of dominance” standard which, in effect, evaluates business conduct based on whether the practice harms competitors.

U.S. policymakers must maintain the law’s focus on consumers, rather than competitors. This focus encourages innovation and investment by allowing companies to reap the benefits of new products and technologies. It incentivizes them to enter new markets and to out-compete their rivals. 

In sharp contrast, the European standard punishes companies for taking away market share from their competitors. It encourages less successful companies to complain to regulators rather than fight to compete. It lets the government pick winners and losers in the marketplace, irrespective of the merits of a business practice, and often for political reasons.

Unfortunately, the United States is creeping toward adoption of the European standard. Several recent federal and state bills would move American antitrust law closer to the European model. Moreover, the Federal Trade Commission recently adopted policy guidance that expressly embraces the idea that U.S. competition law should protect competitors. American policymakers should resist these proposals at every opportunity.

Does the proposal improve the operation of the marketplace by giving more choice to consumers, or does it threaten the marketplace by giving more power to regulators? 

Virtually every recent policy proposal promises to improve competition and to provide consumers with more choice. Upon closer review, however, most proposals actually would empower government regulators far more than consumers. Many bills would allow, say, the Federal Trade Commission to determine whether, when, where, and how companies can compete, force companies to share sensitive data with competitors, and require them to seek prior approval from regulators for routine business decisions from when to update their software to whether they can acquire small companies.

In contrast, other proposals would empower consumers by giving them more information and choice. For instance, provisions of state laws in Texas and Florida, and federal bills like the PACT Act, require companies to give their customers information about their content moderation decisions and the right to appeal those decisions internally. Another interesting bill would effectively devolve content moderation decisions to consumers. 

To be sure, each of these proposals may have its own constitutional infirmities given the paramount interests protected by the First Amendment, and the bills ultimately may prove unnecessary as private companies like Meta and Twitter are already adopting some of these concepts on their own. Still, to the extent that policymakers consider any new proposals, they should seek to empower consumers, not regulators.

Would the proposal encourage or discourage investment?

As above, virtually every recent policy proposal promises to enhance innovation—just like every food, beverage, and air freshener promises to help you lose weight and improve your social standing. Buyers should beware. Accordingly, a better, more tailored question is whether a particular proposal would encourage or discourage investment. Innovation is often intangible and amorphous; we can measure investment.

On this score, many recent policy proposals fall short. They expressly prohibit or discourage large companies from entering new markets or from investing in startups. Proponents argue that such limits would help smaller companies, without recognizing that those companies often need venture capital and technical expertise to monetize their technology and to bring new products to market. Throughout history, in both the tech sector and the economy at large, larger companies have helped to spur innovation through such investments.

Instead of limiting investment, policymakers should seek to reduce the cost of capital for newer companies—indeed, ease of financing is a key reason why the U.S. far surpasses Europe in investment and innovation.

How would the proposal affect the ability of the United States to further its interests abroad and to safeguard its national security?

Around the globe, many countries have placed a target on the U.S. tech sector. Europe, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and many other countries have enacted or are considering new rules that would disadvantage U.S. tech companies. Many proposals stem from protectionist impulses, out of a desire to kickstart domestic tech companies, while others simply seek to transfer wealth from U.S. companies to their foreign counterparts. 

Our domestic policies can influence developments abroad. When Congress and the White House pursue anti-tech policies at home, those arguments undermine U.S. interests overseas. Washington cannot credibly encourage other countries to adopt free market policies even as it seeks to kneecap its own tech companies with aggressive regulation. On the other hand, when Washington embraces traditional principles of antitrust law, and when it allows the market and legal process to play out freely, those actions send powerful messages to other capitals around the world. The same might be said of speech—the more Washington seeks to dictate what private companies must say, the more comfortable other countries may feel in imposing even more significant constraints.

Finally, looming over everything is the specter of China, which wants to use its tech sector to supplant the United States as the world’s leading power. Whatever their complaints, policymakers should ensure that they allow the tech sector the freedom to develop the new technologies that underpin America’s economy and security. At the very least, every tech “reform” bill should undergo a rigorous analysis of its potential impact on national security.

Would the proposal impose unsustainable compliance and litigation costs, especially on smaller companies?

In evaluating tech proposals, at least three truths are self-evident: (a) the law should apply equally to everyone, (b) high litigation and compliance costs discourage innovation, and (c) large companies can absorb regulatory and litigation costs more easily than smaller companies.

Accordingly, policymakers should keep in mind the impact of new proposals on smaller companies and startups. Although seemingly everyone wants to regulate Big Tech, policymakers must consider whether smaller companies can absorb the costs and risks of new proposals, such as changes to Section 230 or forced interoperability among competing platforms. New regulations could strangle in their infancy startups and smaller companies which, by definition, have lower revenue and less of a legal and policy infrastructure. 

Some recent tech proposals exempted smaller companies through artificial thresholds based on market capitalization or number of users. Whether or not those proposals would have withstood legal scrutiny, they flouted the American legal tradition of equality before the law—if a proposal is good policy, it should apply to everyone.

Bonus question, for tech companies: Are you imposing political policy preferences on the public?

With great power comes great responsibility. 

Much of the concern with tech companies flows from their content moderation decisions, or lack thereof. As policymakers consider various proposals in Washington, it would behoove the companies to ask themselves if they are serving as honest speech brokers or, as Musk’s Twitter Files seem to suggest, if certain companies have used their platforms to tilt the discourse in favor of certain policy preferences. This is particularly true when many of the most controversial speech decisions were made at the behest of government officials who had their own agendas, whether at the FBI, the White House, or the Department of Health and Human Services. To that end, one bill would prohibit government officials from using their authority to influence companies to suppress speech. 

The Supreme Court will soon provide guidance about the scope of legal immunity when tech companies moderate, or fail to moderate, content on their platforms. Regardless of how the Court answers that question, the tech companies should ask themselves whether they are exercising their rights in ways that are consistent with the American tradition of free speech. No doubt the companies have a right to run their businesses as they see fit and a responsibility to maximize shareholder value. Still, although the companies may have the right to suppress certain speech on their platforms, it does not necessarily follow that it is just and proper for them to do so. 

***

As the public, policymakers, and the private sector consider how to balance innovation and regulation, everyone could benefit from a little humility. Policymakers should recognize that sometimes problems can take care of themselves, whether through market forces or existing laws. The private sector should consider that a little transparency and neutrality could go a long way in forestalling the enactment of onerous rules that could hamstring innovation for years to come. 

Should we expect real humility in Silicon Valley and Washington? Who knows—as the Germans might say, man hat schon Pferde kotzen gesehen—“You already saw horses vomiting,” or, “crazier things have happened.”

Asheesh Agarwal is an attorney and an advisor to the American Edge Project and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  See more on the Contributors page.

The FTC’s Recent Moves Could Cost It in the Supreme Court – By Asheesh Agarwal — October 25, 2022

The FTC’s Recent Moves Could Cost It in the Supreme Court – By Asheesh Agarwal

[Note: This post originally appeared at the Yale Journal on Regulation on Oct. 23, 2022]

The Federal Trade Commission appears on a collision course with the Supreme Court. Even as the Court reins in the discretion of independent agencies to increase their accountability to the President and Congress, the FTC is charging ahead with new rules and novel theories that stretch the limits of its authority. For instance, the FTC is seeking to cripple the ad-supported Internet, cancel the gig economy, reimagine the merger guidelines, and expand the scope of its mandate beyond consumers to encompass workers, health and safety risks, and equity for historically underserved communities. 

These initiatives could prod the high court to take a hard look at the FTC’s place in the constitutional order. Later this year, the Court will hear oral argument in Axon Enterprise, Inc. v. Federal Trade Commission on a narrow procedural question, namely, whether someone can raise certain structural constitutional challenges to the FTC directly in federal court or must first wade through the agency’s administrative processes. By expanding its regulatory reach in ways that may exceed its mandate, the FTC could persuade the Court that companies need the ability to go into federal court immediately to challenge activities that exceed the agency’s statutory authority. Moreover, by pushing the envelope on rulemakings and policy guidance, the FTC may well lay the groundwork for the Court to revisit the FTC’s constitutionality in future cases. 

This article outlines the FTC’s constitutional history and explains how its current agenda could raise questions about the agency in Axon and future cases.

I. The FTC’s Ongoing Constitutionality Remains Open to Debate

A creature of the first progressive era, the Federal Trade Commission’s powers have always been subject to scrutiny. In 1914, Congress created the agency as a multimember body with features of all three branches of government. The FTC could investigate, prosecute, adjudicate, and even legislate rules of conduct for the business community. At the time, President Woodrow Wilson’s Attorney General (and later Supreme Court Justice) James Clark McReynolds publicly doubted the agency’s constitutionality. Although President Wilson, a progressive, ultimately supported the agency, even he wanted to constrain its authority to avoid empowering a “smug lot of experts.” As the president explained, “God forbid that in a democratic country we should resign the task and give the government over to experts. What are we for if we are to be scientifically taken care of by a small number of gentlemen who are the only men who understand the job?”

These concerns helped to shape the agency’s authority. In Humphrey’s Executor v. United States, 295 U.S. 602 (1935), the Supreme Court upheld for-cause limits on the president’s ability to remove a commissioner, somewhat insulating the FTC from the rest of the executive branch, but only because the agency had a limited mandate and operated under multiple constraints. Most importantly, the FTC’s mission was “neither political nor executive, but predominantly quasi-judicial and quasi-legislative.” Any executive functions were strictly limited to implementing these “quasi-legislative or quasi-judicial powers.”

Moreover, in the Court’s view at the time, the commission did not set policy or operate in a partisan manner. The FTC was “nonpartisan,” acted with “entire impartiality,” and “charged with the enforcement of no policy except the policy of the law.” Indeed, it was “essential that the commission should not be open to the suspicion of partisan direction.” 

Finally, the Court placed great stock in the wisdom of the individual commissioners. The commissioners were “called upon to exercise the trained judgment of a body of experts.” As the Court explained, the commission’s work demanded “persons who have experience in the problems to be met — that is, a proper knowledge of both the public requirements and the practical affairs of industry.”

Of course, in the nine decades since Humphrey’s Executor, constitutional jurisprudence has become even more skeptical of agency authority. In West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, No. 20-1530 (2022), the Supreme Court invoked the “major questions doctrine” to find that the Clean Air Act did not grant the EPA authority to devise carbon emission caps. In a recent lower court decision, Jarkesy v. Securities and Exchange Commission, 34 F.4th 446 (2022), the Fifth Circuit held that Congress unconstitutionally delegated legislative power to the SEC, another multimember agency.

The courts have also reined in the FTC. In AMG Capital Management v. FTC, 593 U.S. __ (2021), the Supreme Court unanimously held that the FTC lacked statutory authority to seek equitable monetary relief in federal court under Section 13(b) of the FTC Act. The Court found that the agency had improperly stretched its statutory language to circumvent various procedural guardrails for defendants. Perhaps unused to a judicial rebuke, the agency’s Acting Chair responded that “the Supreme Court ruled in favor of scam artists and dishonest corporations, leaving average Americans to pay for illegal behavior.” 

Other opinions call into question the agency’s very existence, as currently structured. In Seila Law v. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, 591 U.S. __ (2020), the Court, reading Humphrey’s Executor narrowly, held that the President can remove the head of the CFPB without cause, thereby tying the agency closer to the rest of the executive branch. In a dissent in PHH Corp. v. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, No. 15-1177, (D.C. Cir. 2018), then-Judge Kavanaugh wrote that the FTC and other independent agencies “collectively constitute, in effect, a headless fourth branch of the U.S. Government.” Echoing President Wilson’s original concerns with a “smug lot of experts,” Kavanaugh wrote that independent agencies “hold enormous power over the economic and social life of the United States. Because of their massive power and the absence of Presidential supervision and direction, independent agencies pose a significant threat to individual liberty and to the constitutional system of separation of powers and checks and balances.”

II. The FTC’s Aggressive Agenda Could Lead to a Significant Loss in the Supreme Court 

The pending case of Axon v. FTC could bring many of these issues to a head. Axon itself involves a narrow procedural issue about when companies can bring a structural constitutional challenge to the FTC in federal court, but the case’s outcome could affect the agency’s ability to implement its broader agenda. The FTC is contemplating new rules and guidelines to regulate everything from privacy and mergers to the gig economy and the ad-supported Internet. With a win in Axon, the FTC likely could implement its full agenda while keeping judicial scrutiny at bay for years; with a loss, companies likely could challenge, and quite possibly forestall, questionable rules much earlier in the process. Beyond these very practical questions, the case also could lay the groundwork for a full-scale review of Humphrey’s Executor. Although the Court declined to consider that question, some pending lower court cases raise the same issues and the FTC’s current agenda is likely to lead to significant legal questions sooner rather than later. Moreover, several sitting justices, including Justices Kavanaugh and Thomas, have shown an interest in examining the role of independent agencies in our constitutional system. 

A. Axon and Alleged Agency Overreach

By itself, Axon presents a case study in the costs of administrative processes. Axon manufactures body cameras and other equipment for law enforcement. In 2018, Axon purchased a failing competitor; the FTC investigated on antitrust grounds. After eighteen months of back and forth, $1.6 million in legal fees, and a demand that Axon spin-off the acquired company and share its own intellectual property, Axon sued the FTC in federal court. Axon specifically requested a reversal of Humphrey’s Executor, contending that the FTC’s structure and selection process for Administrative Law Judges were unconstitutional. In response, the FTC filed an administrative enforcement petition and argued in court that the administrative proceedings had to play out before the court could assert jurisdiction. The district court agreed with the FTC.

On appeal, a split panel of the Ninth Circuit reluctantly affirmed. (While the certiorari petition was pending, the en banc Fifth Circuit held that district courts have jurisdiction over these constitutional challenges. Cochran v. SEC, 20 F.4th 194 (5th Cir. 2021). The Supreme Court then granted certiorari to resolve the circuit split.) The majority concluded that, under controlling precedent, Axon had to navigate the administrative process before moving to federal court. Still, the majority acknowledged that Axon had “serious concerns about how the FTC operates,” including “legitimate questions about whether the FTC has stacked the deck in its favor in its administrative proceedings.” The court noted that the FTC “has not lost a single case [internally] in the past quarter-century.” In a partial dissent, Judge Bumatay reasoned that Axon should have the ability to file its constitutional claims directly in federal court, both because the FTC’s adjudicators had no special expertise in constitutional law and because lengthy administrative processes could effectively deny Axon judicial review.

The Supreme Court granted certiorari on the procedural question of whether someone can challenge the FTC’s constitutionality directly in federal court. The Court declined to consider the second question presented in the petition, which was whether the FTC’s structure is consistent with the Constitution. Oral argument is set for November 7th.

B. The FTC’s Agenda Could Help to Shape Axon – and Vice Versa

As the Supreme Court prepares to hear Axon, it will likely evaluate the procedural rights of defendants and the objectivity of the agency’s internal processes, with an eye toward future cases involving the FTC. In particular, the Court may think about future cases that raise statutory challenges to the FTC’s activities: if the FTC promulgates a rule that exceeds its statutory authority, should someone have to wade through years of administrative litigation before challenging that rule in federal court? Axon could shed light on that question.

With these future cases in mind, the Court may consider, or at least note, the fact that the FTC is currently contemplating one of the most aggressive agendas in its history. That agenda seeks to reshape broad swaths of the U.S. economy with little regard for its statutory constraints or judicial precedent. The FTC’s current chair, Lina Khan, has argued for the government to play a larger role in “shaping markets and economic outcomes” while decrying the free market as a “product of metaphysical forces.” According to two commissioners, the agency’s leadership intends to “embark on a sweeping campaign to replace the free market system with its own enlightened views of how companies should operate … goals that are ripe for political manipulation.”

Without immediate recourse to federal courts, the FTC could force the business community to abide by arguably illegal rules for years to come, with profound consequences for the U.S. economy, technological innovation, and global competitiveness.

In perhaps its most significant initiative, the FTC has issued an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) regarding “commercial surveillance and data security.” According to the two commissioners who dissented from the ANPRM’s issuance, the potential rulemaking could ban or severely restrict “common business practices we have never before even asserted are illegal.” For instance, the FTC could promulgate a rule to do the following: 

(1) restrict or ban “personalized” or “targeted” online advertising, which for decades has served as a cornerstone of the free, ad-supported Internet; 

(2) declare that consumers cannot consent to sharing personal data online, either for themselves or their children;

(3) ban any computer programs that produce disparate outcomes, a rule that could cripple the development of advanced artificial intelligence; and 

(4) by limiting data collection, effectively eliminate customer loyalty programs.

Any one of these rules would land like a giant asteroid in the middle of the U.S. economy, setting off tsunamis and dust clouds that could drive many companies past the point of extinction and leave consumers with fewer choices and higher prices.

Faced with such consequences, the question becomes paramount of when an affected party could challenge such a rule in federal court. As both dissenting commissioners explain, the FTC lacks the statutory authority to issue a broad rule (and likely the requisite constitutional authority, given the major questions and non-delegation doctrines). Still, there is no guarantee that anyone could bring an immediate facial challenge to such a rule. The FTC could easily craft a somewhat amorphous rule – e.g., “companies shall not use computer programs that result in a disparate impact on workers” — that imposes no definitive requirements on companies. Such a rule could leave the agency with discretion to apply the rule as it sees fit, insulated from effective challenge while chilling legitimate business activity for years.

In another major initiative, the FTC and the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division are planning to re-imagine the horizontal and vertical merger guidelines. Companies rely on the guidelines to structure their transactions and to gain insights into the thinking of the antitrust agencies. Last updated during the Obama administration and approved by unanimous vote, the guidelines affect hundreds of billions of dollars in deals every year. 

Unfortunately, based on their Request for Information (RFI) and public messaging, it appears that the agencies are seeking to rewrite the antitrust laws in ways that would usurp the authority of Congress and the courts. For instance, the agencies repeatedly cite cases from the 1960s that have long been discredited by economists, lawyers, the agencies themselves, and the Supreme Court. Likewise, the RFI frequently asks about topics that the courts have long settled, such as Questions 2(g) (“Should the guidelines’ traditional distinctions between horizontal and vertical mergers be revisited in light of recent economic trends in the modern economy?”) and 6(a) (“Is it necessary to define a market in every case?”). The case law already answers these questions. Neither the FTC nor DOJ should ignore judicial guidance on the distinction between horizontal and vertical mergers and the necessity of market definition.

Here again, a strong Axon opinion could help to keep the FTC in line with its statutory constraints and judicial precedent. As an ordinary matter, of course, a federal court likely would not entertain a challenge to an agency’s guidance or policy documents, as such pronouncements typically lack the force of binding law. Nevertheless, courts have recognized that sometimes agencies attempt to create substantive law through guidelines. For example, in describing some of the EPA’s activities, the D.C. Circuit explained that “as years pass, the agency issues circulars or guidance or memoranda, explaining, interpreting, defining, and often expanding the commands on the regulations. … Law is made, without notice and comment, without public participation, and without publication in the Federal Register or the Code of Federal Regulations. … The agency may also think there is another advantage — immunizing its lawmaking from judicial review.” Appalachian Power Co. v EPA, 208 F. 3d. 1015, at 1020 (D.C. Cir. 2000). 

Indeed, the FTC is actively seeking to avoid judicial review when possible. As a condition of approving mergers, the FTC has started to pressure companies into accepting ten-year “prior approval language” that allows the agency to veto mergers without having to go to court. As part of a contentious merger review, the agency appeared to coordinate with a foreign regulatory agency to deprive a U.S. company of the ability to challenge the FTC’s actions in federal court. More generally, the FTC has simply delayed clearing or challenging mergers with the effect that the merging parties abandon their transactions, again negating the possibility of judicial review. This appears to be part of the plan. In an interview, the FTC’s Chair asked Congress to make it easier for the agencies “to pursue some of the worst violations that we’re seeing, without having to, you know, face the potential of losing significantly.”

A strong Axon opinion, upholding aggrieved parties’ right to immediate judicial review when the FTC exceeds its authority, would help keep the FTC within its constitutional and statutory bounds. Such an opinion would hold that defendants can bring constitutional challenges directly in federal court and signal that courts will apply meaningful judicial review of agency actions that exceed the commission’s statutory bounds. Such a decision would be limited in scope and judicially manageable, but also would remind the agency that it operates in a system of government with checks and balances on all three branches of government, including independent agencies.

C. The FTC’s Agenda Could Reinvigorate a Review of Humphrey’s Executor

More fundamentally, Axon could lay the groundwork for a complete review of Humphrey’s Executor. Although the Court declined to grant certiorari on that question, several justices have expressed interest in the general topic, similar cases are percolating in the lower courts, and the FTC’s aggressive agenda undoubtedly will create new questions for the courts. 

Even a cursory review would show that almost none of Humphrey’s Executor’s rationales have held up over time. Far from being “neither political nor executive,” the FTC at times has sought to set the economic policy agenda for the entire country. In the 1970s, for example, the FTC promulgated numerous rules to regulate the economy, many of which exceeded the FTC’s statutory mandate. In just one year, the FTC launched sixteen rulemakings that sought to “transform entire industries that touch everyday life, from antacids to used cars to vocational schools.” One proposal sought to ban advertising to children. This regulatory excess led the Washington Post to deem the FTC the “national nanny.”

Today, and just as President Wilson feared, the FTC again sees itself as a national driver of broad economic policy. After taking office, the FTC’s current chair described her belief that the agency “shapes the distribution of power and opportunity across our economy.” The FTC’s current Strategic Plan condemns “unwarranted health, safety, and privacy risks” and seeks “equity for historically underserved communities,” important issues but ones that lie far outside the agency’s statutory mandate or historic competence. Current FTC Commissioner Christine Wilson – no relation to Woodrow – complained that the FTC has abandoned its statutory mission of protecting consumers in pursuit of “prevailing but mercurial political winds.” Similarly, a bipartisan group of agency veterans has publicly warned that the commission’s agenda could lead courts to reconsider Humphrey’s Executor.

The Humphrey’s Executor Court also relied heavily on its view that the FTC acted with “entire impartiality” and “should not be open to the suspicion of partisan direction.” Contrary to this view, today the FTC appears to act in concert with the White House — and though it is entirely appropriate for the President to direct the rest of the executive branch, constitutional problems arise when that executive branch agency also exercises quasi-legislative and quasi-judicial powers. In an Executive Order on Promoting Competition in the U.S. Economy, President Biden encouraged the FTC to use its authority to implement a “whole-of-government” competition policy, including using its rulemaking authority to curtail the unfair use of “agreements that may unfairly limit worker mobility.” Although the Executive Order does not direct the FTC to do anything, its issuance certainly creates a “suspicion of partisan direction.” The FTC’s head of policy is a former advisor to the White House and a brief review reveals that, during the last two years, the FTC’s majority Democratic commissioners voted in lockstep to override the concerns of their dissenting Republican counterparts more than a dozen times.

Finally, Humphrey’s Executor placed too much reliance on the experience of the agency’s individual commissioners. The Court expected that those commissioners would have “experience in the problems to be met — that is, a proper knowledge of both the public requirements and the practical affairs of industry.” Oftentimes, however, the FTC’s commissioners have little or no background in the private sector. Many commissioners have substantial (and impressive) experience in academia or on Capitol Hill, but very little practical experience working for or advising the companies that they seek to regulate. 

Without such practical experience, how can commissioners fully appreciate the difficult tradeoffs for businesses as they strive to develop innovative products, serve their customers, and satisfy their responsibilities to their shareholders? The FTC recently eliminated language from its Strategic Plan declaring that the agency should enforce the law “without unduly burdening legitimate business activity” – would anyone who has ever run a business vote to remove such language? For people without such experience, businesses are merely soulless entities to be taxed, regulated, and controlled, rather than vibrant organizations, staffed and owned by actual human beings, that satisfy consumer demand, drive innovation, and secure the nation’s economic and military needs. 

To be sure, the Humphrey’s Executor Court expected commissioners to gain some of that practical experience on the job, but one suspects that even President Wilson, hardly an advocate of limited government, would have worried about a government given over to “experts” without experience.

***

The passing decades have borne out many of President Wilson’s concerns even as they have cast doubt on most of the assumptions that underlay Humphrey’s Executor. In Axon, the Supreme Court will have a chance to subject the FTC to judicial scrutiny and to revisit its place in the nation’s constitutional order.

Asheesh Agarwal served as Assistant Director of the FTC’s Office of Policy Planning under former Chairman Timothy Muris. For their helpful review and comments, he thanks Ted Gebhard, Matt Perault, Alden Abbott, John Delacourt, Geoff Manne, Bilal Sayyed, and Todd Zywicki. See more in his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

Request for Investigation of the FTC’s Practice of Counting “Zombie Votes” — December 3, 2021

Request for Investigation of the FTC’s Practice of Counting “Zombie Votes”

Posted by

Theodore A. Gebhard*

Nearly one month ago, the publication, Politico, reported that the Federal Trade Commission held on to “as many as 20 votes that former Democratic Commissioner Rohit Chopra cast by email on Oct. 8—his last day at the agency—that remain active even after his departure.” The link below is to a letter written by several former FTC Officials and Antitrust Scholars to members of the House and Senate who oversee the FTC and to the Inspector General of the FTC. The former Officials and Scholars express concern that using the votes of Commissioners who have departed from their roles at the FTC and concealing it from the public raises serious problematic issues about transparency and accountability. The Officials seek an investigation to determine the following: 1.) the legal basis for this practice, beyond compliance with internal voting rules; 2.) whether the practice has previously been used, when it was used, and, specifically, if it has been used to break ties; and 3.) information relating to each of the underlying proposals, votes, and relevant motions as well as the FTC’s rationale for concealing these specific matters from public disclosure. I am a signatory on the letter. I encourage readers of this post to read the letter in its entirety. TAG

FTC Alumni Comments on Zombie Votes

* Theodore A. Gebhard is an attorney and economist.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

 
 
Antitrust Scholars and Former Federal Antitrust Enforcers’ Letter to the FTC Expressing Concerns about Altering Enforcement Principles — July 1, 2021

Antitrust Scholars and Former Federal Antitrust Enforcers’ Letter to the FTC Expressing Concerns about Altering Enforcement Principles

Posted by

Theodore A. Gebhard*

The Biden Federal Trade Commission has proposed modifying, or even possibly rescinding, its Statement of Enforcement Principles On Unfair Methods of Competition under Section 5 of the FTC Act. The link below is to a letter prepared by a number of antitrust scholars and former federal antitrust enforcers commenting on this proposal. The signatories express concern that the Commission will be considering a significant shift in enforcement policy and may go so far as to revoke the existing statement, which provides a bipartisan framework laying out widely agreed upon core principles regarding antitrust law and the Commission’s Section 5 enforcement. These principles include the promotion of consumer welfare and focusing enforcement on acts or practices that “must cause, or be likely to cause, harm to competition or the competitive process.” The signatories’ concern is that a rescission of the current statement could untether the Commission’s enforcement decisions from a focus on harms to consumers and the competitive process. Ashley Baker of the Alliance on Antitrust was the principal drafter of the letter. I am a signatory, and I encourage readers of this post to read the letter in its entirety. A link is below. It is also cross-posted at the Alliance on Antitrust website and on the Council for Citizens Against Government Waste website.  TAG

Coalition Comments on Rescission of Enforcement Principles

* Theodore A. Gebhard is an attorney and economist.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

A Prairie Populist Rises Again – Review by Asheesh Agarwal — June 25, 2021

A Prairie Populist Rises Again – Review by Asheesh Agarwal

[Note: This book review originally appeared at Law & Liberty on June 23, 2021]

In her new book, Antitrust: Taking on Monopoly Power from the Gilded Age to the Digital Age, Senator Amy Klobuchar leaves no doubt as to who are the heroes and who the villains in America’s economic history. The heroes are hard-working Americans, farmers, miners, and union members, who have been exploited for more than a century by corporate robber-barons, oligarchs, and monopolists, spanning from Rockefeller to Zuckerberg, aided and abetted by lobbyists, Republicans (except TR, sort of), and worst of all, conservative judges. We, the People, are the Morlocks. They, the Monopolists, are the Eloi. To stop them, we must enact new laws to give the government much more control over the economy.

Even if one questions this stark historical narrative, this is an important and often entertaining book. Senator Klobuchar chairs the Senate Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights and therefore helps to shape the nation’s economic policies. Her book squarely lays out the progressive case for reworking the nation’s antitrust laws, and in so doing, provides insights into progressive thinking. Whereas free market capitalists see a dynamic economy that is producing remarkable new technologies at low prices, progressives see exploited workers and outrageous corporate profits. This book explains her perspective and policy ideas. Along the way, she relays countless historical anecdotes, such as how a monopoly helped to spur the American Revolution and how a merger dispute cost one party the presidency.

And there’s another reason to read this book: a fair reading leaves little doubt that the senior senator from Minnesota is not yet ready to concede the 2024 (or perhaps 2028) Democratic presidential nomination to Vice President Harris.

Antitrust History

As the book relays, antitrust issues have been integral to the nation’s history. “In the British Empire, the monopolies conferred by Parliament were the product of corruption, influence peddling, and outright bribes,” (not unlike the consequences of government intervention in markets today). In Klobuchar’s telling, after Parliament handed control of the tea market over to the British East India Company, Americans resisted via the Boston Tea Party and ultimately the Declaration of Independence, which represented “an act of economic rebellion against monopoly power” (conferred by the government).

Monopoly concerns spurred another famous schism, this one between the first President Roosevelt and his successor. In 1907, Roosevelt informally agreed not to sue U.S. Steel under the Sherman Act, in exchange for the company’s help in stabilizing the stock market. In 1911, ignoring this gentlemen’s agreement, President Taft’s Justice Department sued U.S. Steel for acquiring a large competitor. According to the book, this lawsuit exacerbated the personal rift between Roosevelt and Taft, leading to Roosevelt’s third-party challenge in 1912, the split Republican vote, and the election of Woodrow Wilson, who campaigned on a song titled, “Bust the Trusts.”

For Senator Klobuchar, antitrust is very personal. She contrasts her ancestors, who worked as iron ore miners, with corporate titans such as Minnesota’s James J. Hill, who created the Great Northern Railway and who profited from her ancestors’ labor. “Two generations of the Klobuchar family had worked underground in servitude to the mining interests.” “Unlike James J. Hill, the Klobuchar family owned no railroads.” “As a little girl growing up in the Twin Cities, I never got to go inside [Hill’s 36,000 square foot] house until it opened for public tours.” Although some may describe her views as generational class envy, Klobuchar is absolutely sincere in believing that owners and executives earn too much and workers too little. (My own family history might provide a different lesson: two of my uncles were coal miners; that income allowed all five of their children to attend college, four to earn advanced degrees, and three to become medical doctors).

Klobuchar blames a failure of antitrust law for “too much business consolidation in this country.” Klobuchar, an attorney and alumnus of the University of Chicago Law School, excoriates what is now known as the “Chicago school” of antitrust thinking, which focuses on economic efficiency and consumer welfare, rather than on the number and size of competitors in a particular market. In Klobuchar’s telling, the Chicago school and its chief proponent, Robert Bork, “grossly perverted the whole history of the Sherman Act, which was to protect American farmers and workers and consumers from the power of monopolists.” She describes Bork’s consumer welfare standard as “bizarre.” In her view, the Chicago school’s failure to promote competition has led to high cable rates, airline fares, drug prices, seed and fertilizer costs, and income disparities. (As a fellow alumnus of Chicago Law, I can’t help but wonder who taught Klobuchar antitrust. My guess is that it wasn’t such Chicago luminaries as Richard Posner, Richard Epstein, or Frank Easterbrook, but instead some visitor from Yale, or possibly even Berkeley. Who knows, but for a scheduling conflict, perhaps Klobuchar would have become a Republican!)

Klobuchar makes some fair points about antitrust law. She is right that the authors of the Clayton Act, an early companion to the Sherman Act, wanted to protect small companies and forestall economic concentration, and that antitrust law today does not concern itself with these issues. Unfortunately, Klobuchar does not explain why the courts, with more than a century of experience, eventually found it both impossible and unwise to punish companies based on their size and profit margins. Such criteria proved unworkable and harmful; indeed in the 1960s, LBJ’s antitrust chief, Donald Turner, warned against using the antitrust laws to attack bigness per se.

Klobuchar also makes some claims that are demonstrably false, if not outright troubling. She wrongly asserts that the consumer welfare standard ignores prices paid by actual consumers, when in fact today antitrust concerns itself first and foremost with the possibility of price hikes, along with non-price competitive factors such as quality. She also repeatedly attacks the courts in ways that some may find concerning coming from a member of the august Senate Judiciary Committee. “[T]he extreme views of Gorsuch and Kavanaugh on antitrust issues were one of the many reasons why I fought so hard to keep them off the Court.” Socialist leader Eugene Debs “had good reason to believe that the courts were carrying the water for big business.” Et cetera.

Exchanging Big Business for Big Government

Turning to the future, Klobuchar’s policy proscriptions far exceed the scope of antitrust law—befitting the once and possible future presidential candidate. She writes, for instance, that “We should be investing more in clean energy and green jobs. It is far better for us, as a country, to invest in farmers in the Midwest than in oil sheikhs and oil cartels in the Mideast.” You can hear the applause from the caucus-goers in Des Moines. In nods to progressives, Klobuchar calls for the repeal of Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, other election changes such as paper ballots and “clear rules of the road for political advertising and truthtelling on major internet platforms,” net neutrality, immigration reform, government price negotiations with drug companies, and more capital for women and minority-owned businesses. Bowing to labor unions, Klobuchar wants a $15 minimum wage, an end to right-to-work laws, and tax reform to “ask our wealthiest citizens to pay their fair share of taxes and that would strengthen labor unions.”

When it comes to antitrust, Klobuchar presents a wide spectrum of ideas. Quite a few make sense and could form the basis for some bipartisan compromise. She wants to provide more funding for the antitrust agencies, which has lagged over time, and focus resources on ways to help lower-income consumers and minorities. She also aims at overly aggressive non-compete clauses, which can hamstring hourly workers. For instance, she notes that Jimmy John’s once forbade its employees from taking jobs with competitors for two years. With due respect for these skilled sandwich artists, neither da Vinci nor van Gogh ever faced such severe post-employment restraints.

Unfortunately, many of Klobuchar’s more aggressive ideas would seriously damage the nation’s economic dynamism. She would reverse the burden of proof for certain mergers by requiring the merging parties to prove that an acquisition enhances competition. (Currently, the government must prove that an acquisition harms competition.) She also would allow the antitrust agencies to seek enormous civil fines for violations of the Sherman Act based on a company’s revenue, untethered to actual harm to consumers, and on top of existing remedies such as treble damages. These sorts of proposals could discourage companies from routine, pro-consumer conduct and would move the United States towards a sort of mother-may-I economy, where private companies would have to seek the government’s permission before doing much of anything.

Indeed, Klobuchar expressly wants the United States to model Europe. In her view, “American antitrust enforcers must be much more vigilant in monitoring high-tech companies, just as European officials have been in investigating and monitoring any potential antitrust transgressions.” Although Klobuchar attended the finest law school in the land, she apparently never studied the law of unintended consequences. Can you couple America’s dynamic and innovative economy, home of the world’s largest and most successful tech companies, with Europe’s burdensome legal and regulatory regime, one that punishes “abuse of dominance”? Europe’s tech sector, which lags far behind ours, suggests not. The Council of Economic Advisers has explained that overly aggressive merger review could harm the economy by reducing venture capital funding for start-ups. America’s tech sector leads the world, at least in part, because we have created a legal, regulatory, and financing regime that encourages and rewards innovation. Should Congress turn America into Europe because of some frustrations with Big Tech, even as major antitrust cases are already pending in court?

Klobuchar’s proposals are also rife with contradictions. For example, Klobuchar rightly decries the numerous industries that have been exempted from the antitrust laws, ranging from Major League Baseball to anti-hog-cholera serum. As she explains, “even a cursory review of the legislative and judicial history of America’s antitrust exemptions—one peppered with backroom deals in the halls of Congress—demonstrates that this area of law is, at its best, incoherent and confusing, and, at its worst, corrupt and unfair.” Nevertheless, she then proposes to create yet another antitrust exemption for a favored industry, news publishers, to bargain collectively (read: fix prices) with tech platforms. She correctly criticizes overly aggressive non-compete clauses for limiting worker freedom, then calls for an end to right-to-work laws. She condemns China for using antitrust to protect its domestic industries but then praises Europe, which frequently uses competition policy to engage in rank protectionism.

In perhaps the richest irony, Klobuchar apparently fails to appreciate that her proposals would dramatically increase the authority of the one entity whose power is nearly impossible to dislodge: the federal government. Viewed in totality, Klobuchar’s historical analysis actually undermines her case for giving the government more discretionary authority. For instance, Klobuchar generally admires Roosevelt but relays that he politicized antitrust enforcement. “William Randolph Hearst would expressly complain about what he called ‘the Roosevelt method,’” she tells us. “The Roosevelt method,” according to Hearst,

was to divide the trusts into good trusts and into bad trusts and to go to extreme lengths in assailing those that were declared by him to be the bad trusts, and to equally extreme and sometimes illegal lengths in aiding and protecting those that were declared by him to be the good trusts.

“The good trusts,” he noted, “were the trusts that politically supported Roosevelt and the bad trusts were the trusts that politically opposed Roosevelt.”

How can Klobuchar discount the very real possibility that her proposals would lead to more of the same? It is true that progressives generally fear excessive corporate power and that conservatives fear excessive public power, but Klobuchar repeatedly and rightly highlights instances in which government played favorites in the antitrust space. Past is prologue, no?

Senator Klobuchar deserves credit for writing a thoughtful and engaging analysis of antitrust law. No one can begrudge her seeking to use her committee perch to set forth a national political platform. But as shown by her review of TR, the British Empire, and anti-hog-cholera serum, policymakers of both parties should exercise caution before they give the government even more discretion to police our economic freedoms.

Asheesh Agarwal is an attorney and an advisor to the American Edge Project and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  See more on the Contributors page.

 

Positive Legislative Antitrust Agenda for Congress and the New Biden Administration — March 5, 2021

Positive Legislative Antitrust Agenda for Congress and the New Biden Administration

Posted by

Theodore A. Gebhard*

The link below is to a letter prepared by a coalition of former federal antitrust enforcers and antitrust scholars, which was sent to the members of the Senate and House Committees that have jurisdiction over the Department of Justice’s and Federal Trade Commission’s antitrust missions. The letter sets out a Positive Legislative Agenda for the nation’s competition policy, which should also serve as guidance to the new Biden Administration antitrust enforcers. Ashley Baker of the Alliance on Antitrust was the principal drafter of the letter.  I am a signatory.  I encourage the reader of this post to read the letter in its entirety.  TAG

Antitrust-Positive-Agenda

* Theodore A. Gebhard is an attorney and economist.  See his mini-bio on the Contributors page.

The New Google Suits – By Asheesh Agarwal — January 15, 2021

The New Google Suits – By Asheesh Agarwal

[Note: This post originally appeared at Law & Liberty on Jan. 13, 2021]

Just before the holidays, 44 states filed two separate lawsuits alleging that Google violated the Sherman Act and 16 separate state statutes. The lawsuits, totaling 245 pages, seek to dismember the company and force it to pay perhaps hundreds of billions of dollars in treble damages. In a nutshell, the suits focus on two main themes:  Google has attempted to monopolize the online search engine market (“the search lawsuit”), and Google has attempted to monopolize the online advertising market (“the ad tech lawsuit”). 

The search lawsuit, led by Colorado, largely tracks an earlier lawsuit filed by the Department of Justice. It alleges that Google unlawfully maintains monopolies through exclusionary contracts that require computer and mobile device manufacturers to set Google as the default search engine and to preinstall Google applications. Like DOJ, the states charge that Google is using exclusive contracts to monopolize the search components of the Internet of Things, such as automobiles and voice assistants, and that Google’s algorithms disadvantage specialized search competitors, like Yelp and Expedia.

The ad tech lawsuit, led by Texas, alleges that Google improperly monopolizes online advertising by manipulating auctions in its favor, colluding with Facebook, and pressuring advertisers to use its full suite of ad tools. At its core, the lawsuit alleges that Google uses its size to give it unfair competitive advantages in placing ads. For instance, the suit claims that Google promised advertisers that its tools would let them place ads on competing engines and exchanges, but actually tilted the playing field in its own favor. According to the complaint, Google gave Facebook preferential treatment and more data, in exchange for Facebook’s agreement to limit competition for advertising auctions. Similarly, the states allege that Google “uses its market power to withhold YouTube inventory from competing buyside ad buying tools, forcing advertisers to use Google’s tools in order to purchase ad space from the leading provider of video inventory in the United States.”

The lawsuits raise numerous complex factual and legal issues that likely will take years to sort out. Even at this early stage, however, a few points become clear.

These lawsuits, along with two suits against Facebook, firmly move the antitrust debate from Congress to the courts. Many reformers, particularly on the left but also on the right, are seeking to expand the scope of antitrust law. Some proposals would force companies to separate into single lines of business, hamper certain firms’ ability to acquire other companies, and even have antitrust law take into account amorphous values like “fairness” and “democratic ideals.” With these lawsuits pending, Congress is less likely to enact major antitrust legislation. Many reformers, such as House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler, praised the lawsuits as an “important step” in preserving competition online. Given that the existing laws, as written, may well allow the courts to address any competitive concerns, antitrust reformers will have a harder time persuading their colleagues that Congress must overhaul the antitrust laws now. At the very least, given that the most significant antitrust cases in two decades are now in the courts, Congress should take a deep breath before trying to rewrite a century of antitrust law.

The lawsuits challenge the idea that vertical integration benefits consumers. Google both places ads for advertisers and sells advertising space for most of the world’s ad-supported websites. Google operates the most popular general search engine and many properties, such as YouTube and map apps, that attract millions of eyeballs. Google’s popularity gives it an upper hand in the ad search market; Google offers tools to assist advertisers in evaluating consumer interactions and serves as an intermediary between the ad exchanges for publishers and its own online ad servers. In the states’ telling, Google abuses its breadth by “tying” together these offerings, which “coerces” advertisers and publishers into accepting all of its offerings and paying higher prices in order to reach, or have better chances of reaching, the millions of eyeballs otherwise not accessible to those looking for more direct deals with other networks. At least in theory, this conduct could violate the antitrust laws: in this narrative, Google’s use of its search market power qualifies as a tying violation when Google (allegedly) restricts customers’ ability to advertise on Google’s most popular offerings, like YouTube, unless those customers also use Google’s full suite of products. Google likely will counter that its integrated offerings benefit its customers through lower prices and efficient services, and in any case, that Google has every right to give preferential treatment to customers who use more of its services. While the facts will come to light over time, in general, tying claims are notoriously difficult to prove in court, and economic research suggests that vertical integration benefits consumers. The antitrust agencies agree with this principle.

The lawsuits attempt to define away the broader competitive landscape. Most antitrust lawsuits hinge on the definition of the market: the narrower the market, the easier it is to argue that a company has the market power to charge higher prices. In these cases, the states define the relevant markets as narrowly as an election margin in Wisconsin. For instance, the states define the advertising market to exclude TV, radio, print, and outdoor advertising, and the search market to exclude specialized search engines and social media advertising. Indeed, the ad tech lawsuit alleges that YouTube dominates the market for “online instream video advertising,” which comes close to alleging that YouTube dominates the market for YouTube. In reality, advertisers can reach consumers at many other websites that stream videos, including Facebook, Flickr, TikTok, Twitch, Twitter, Dailymotion, Snapchat, and even MySpace, which still receives fifteen million views monthly.

The lawsuits attempt to fix an industry that, by many metrics, is already very competitive. Online ad fees are falling, overall ad prices are declining, and output is rising. From 2010 to 2019, domestic spending for online digital advertising quintupled, from $26 billion to nearly $130 billion. Over the same period, Internet advertising costs declined by nearly 40%. In general, these characteristics epitomize a competitive marketplace, not one dominated by a monopolist (monopolists tend to reduce output and raise prices in order to maximize their revenue).

The courts will have to sort through many hotly contested facts. In perhaps the most tantalizing charge, the states accuse Google of colluding with Facebook to limit competition for advertising auctions, to the benefit of both companies. Google counters that Facebook receives no preferential treatment, that dozens of other companies bid in the same auctions, and that Google has made no secret of its agreement with Facebook. As much of the states’ complaints are redacted, time will tell whether the states have identified facts that support a viable antitrust theory.

In another contentious charge, the states allege that Google intentionally limits competition from specialized vertical providers in certain market segments like travel, home improvement, and entertainment, by “limiting those firms’ ability to acquire customers.” So, for instance, the charge is that Google downgrades the search visibility of companies like Expedia and TripAdvisor in order to benefit its own properties. Google counters that its search results preference the businesses themselves, rather than middlemen, thereby allowing businesses to connect directly with their customers. On this point, Google may receive some support from … the Federal Trade Commission. In 2013, the FTC looked into the alleged search bias and concluded that Google’s search tools “likely benefited consumers,” finding that Google designed its search tools to provide quality results, not to stifle competitors. The courts will have to sort through whether the FTC got it right then, whether anything material has changed, and whether Google designed its search algorithms to harm competition or simply to provide individuals with the results that Google thinks they want.

Before the lawsuits conclude, real-world events likely will bring more competition to the marketplace. Including appeals, the state lawsuits likely will take two or three years to play out. Maybe longer. By that time, the competitive landscape could look very different. Reports suggest that Apple is planning to turn Siri into an independent search engine, instead of a voice for Google searches; if so, three of the world’s largest tech companies will compete vigorously in the general search market. A fourth company, Amazon, already has surpassed Google in product searches, where search engines earn almost all their money. Walmart, no competitive slouch, recently launched its own self-serve ad platform. Beyond existing competitors, smart TVs soon could offer personal advertising, European regulators are actively seeking to boost their tech companies by hobbling their American rivals, and Chinese companies continue to invest strategically in nascent technologies. 

As has happened so often throughout the last century, the marketplace likely will move much faster than the court system, particularly in as dynamic an industry as technology. Today’s competitive landscape may seem quaint by the standards of, say, 2025, much as 2008’s landscape, dominated by MySpace and AOL, seems quaint today.  Thus, while the lawsuits certainly bear watching, the real guarantor of competition is likely happening outside the courtroom.

Google Gets the Scalpel, Not the Sledgehammer – By Asheesh Agarwal — November 11, 2020

Google Gets the Scalpel, Not the Sledgehammer – By Asheesh Agarwal

[Note: This post originally appeared at Law & Liberty on Nov. 9, 2020.]

Perhaps Attorney General Bill Barr has been re-reading his history. A few weeks ago, the Department of Justice filed its long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. The lawsuit approaches Google with a scalpel, rather than a sledgehammer, and at most may result in a handful of minor changes to Google’s business model, rather than Google’s wholesale dismemberment, a goal sought by many progressives. As an added bonus, the lawsuit likely slows progressive momentum to rewrite the nation’s antitrust laws to promote social goals and fuzzy notions of fairness.

Nonetheless, the lawsuit has serious flaws. It misconstrues the search market, flirts with the outdated idea that “big is bad,” and ignores the ease with which consumers can switch to other search options. Nevertheless, if a lawsuit had to be filed—and given the intense bipartisan spotlight on Big Tech, some sort of suit seemed inevitable—this suit’s silver lining may well outstrip its cloud: the lawsuit will allow a review of Big Tech’s business practices in deliberate judicial proceedings, rather than frenzied and politicized congressional hearings.

The Backdrop

For more than a year, Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon have been in the crosshairs of both the right and the left, the White House and Congress. The right worries about perceived anti-conservative bias among social media platforms and search engines. The left rages about Big Tech’s size, scope, and overall power and earnings. Months ago, Jared Nadler, Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, declared that the large tech companies “cannot be allowed to exist in society.”

Against this backdrop, the House Antitrust Subcommittee recently issued a lengthy report that recommends the breakup of Big Tech. Among other changes, the report calls for “structural separations” of each company into its primary component parts, each with a single line of business, presumptively prohibiting these companies from purchasing start-ups, and requiring them to offer equal terms to their competitors.

The House report, however, goes beyond Big Tech. It seeks to reimagine antitrust law and perhaps even the entire economy. For decades, a bipartisan consensus has embraced the “consumer welfare standard,” the idea that antitrust law should, first and foremost, protect consumers by focusing on the likely impact of business conduct on prices, an objective metric. The House report dismisses consumer welfare as a “narrow” standard and instead proposes that antitrust law should protect “workers, entrepreneurs, independent businesses, open markets, a fair economy, and democratic ideals.” Who will determine whether business conduct comports with the concepts of a “fair economy” and “democratic ideals”? What criteria will they use? The House report doesn’t say. 

The Lawsuit 

Against this charged backdrop, DOJ, joined by eleven state Attorneys General (all Republicans), filed its lawsuit against Google. The suit alleges that Google unlawfully maintains monopolies in the search and search advertising markets through various anticompetitive practices. In particular, Google enters into exclusive contracts that require computer and mobile device manufacturers who use Android to make Google the default search engine in whatever browser they set as the default, while forbidding them from replacing the Google search box on the Android home screen with competing search software. Google’s contracts also demand that manufacturers preinstall a suite of Google applications, such as Google Maps and Gmail, and ensure that they are accessible through (at least) a folder on the Android home screen. Google’s contracts also specify that those apps must be undeletable. 

DOJ alleges that these practices foreclose competition in the markets for online searches and search advertising. They reduce “the quality of search (including on dimensions such as privacy, data protection, and use of consumer data), lessening choice in search, and impeding innovation.” In addition, “by suppressing competition in advertising, Google has the power to charge advertisers more than it could in a competitive market and to reduce the quality of the services it provides them.” 

DOJ’s complaint does not specify the relief that it seeks, but based on its complaint, some reformation of Google’s contracts seems like a plausible remedy. DOJ does not complain about Google’s various acquisitions, such as YouTube, and although it mentions the possibility of “structural relief,” it does not expressly seek to dismantle the company.

The Good

Momentarily setting aside the merits of the case, the lawsuit could achieve a number of salutary objectives. The lawsuit likely takes the wind out of the sails of progressives who want to rewrite the nation’s antitrust laws. For instance, Chairman Nadler called the lawsuit an “important step for ensuring a competitive online space.” As a result, the lawsuit’s very existence will complicate arguments that Congress needs to change the antitrust laws now—why, when a viable lawsuit is winding its way through the courts? Similarly, the lawsuit answers calls from both the right and the left to “do something” about Big Tech (though it doesn’t address concerns about political bias) and ensures that Google’s business practices will receive serious scrutiny from a court of law. In this sense, DOJ has released a pressure valve at just the right time.

Finally, the lawsuit may forestall, or at least color, a much more aggressive lawsuit that could be filed by Democratic Attorneys General or a possible Biden-Harris administration. Of course, nothing actually prevents the filing of new lawsuits, but the current proceeding will shape the perception of any future ones.

The Bad 

Whatever its political value, in the final legal analysis, DOJ’s complaint misconstrues the market in ways that are likely to doom its chances in court. For now, at least, antitrust law protects consumers and competition—not competitors. To determine whether a “market” is competitive for antitrust purposes, courts evaluate, in part, whether consumers have other options. Can consumers easily substitute one product for another? If so, courts are less likely to find an antitrust violation. 

Consumers have a world of search choices online. Although DOJ treats Google’s pre-installation on Android devices as some sort of talismanic black hole from which consumers cannot escape, in reality, consumers can easily change the default search engine in their Android browser to DuckDuckGo or Microsoft’s Bing, competing general-purpose search engines that consumers can use and install at no monetary cost and in virtually no time. Or consumers can simply install an alternative browser that comes with a default search engine other than Google—like Microsoft’s Edge browser. Microsoft, the world’s largest technology company, certainly has the resources to compete with Google. In principle, Microsoft could compete for pre-installation contracts for its Bing search app (which has 10+ million downloads) or Edge. Or, even if manufacturers continue to preinstall Google, Microsoft could fund an advertising campaign to persuade consumers to switch (how about a campaign titled, “Where you search matters?”). 

Consumers also have many choices for the searches that really count, at least from the standpoint of earning money: searches for products. Advertisers pay a premium to place their ads in front of consumers who are searching for particular products. If you search for “pizza” or “shoes,” lo and behold, you’re likely to see a banner ad with a pizza coupon or a shoe brand. Google earns the most money from these types of product searches, and much less from general informational searches. 

recent survey found that 70 percent of consumers begin their product search on Amazon. Facebook’s product searches are growing at a faster clip than Google’s, and other companies, including Walmart, are further cutting into Google’s share of the product search market. For general services, like plumbers, consumers can turn to Yelp or Angie’s List, and for special or professional services, to sites like LinkedIn. 

DOJ argues that Google’s dominance in the general search market comes from its exclusionary contracts, but a simpler reason may be that consumers prefer Google’s general search functionality, or at least are sufficiently satisfied such that they see no reason to switch. If so, one is hard-pressed to see the consumer benefits that conceivably could flow from this lawsuit. From the standpoint of consumer welfare, does it really matter whether one company dominates in the general search market, when those searches are not valuable economically?

If DOJ prevails, it may well be the first time in history that a court has found that a company has “monopolized” a market where consumers have multiple free alternatives, where the alleged “monopolist” is no longer the leader in the part of the market that actually earns money, and where there has been no showing of higher prices in any relevant market. 

…And the Ugly

Of greater concern is DOJ’s flirtation with the concept that “big is bad.” At one point in time, bigness alone could trigger antitrust scrutiny. Fortunately, this concept has long been discredited in antitrust circles on both sides of the aisle; indeed, President Lyndon Johnson’s Antitrust Division started to chip away at this concept more than 50 years ago.

DOJ repeatedly mentions the scale of Google’s operations and the difficulty that any competitors would have in creating a viable competitor. According to DOJ, “Google’s anticompetitive practices are especially pernicious because they deny rivals scale to compete effectively. . . . To recoup the large investment in creating and maintaining a general search engine, scale is critical to generating the necessary revenues and profits.”

In arguing that scale should invite antitrust scrutiny, however, DOJ treads a dangerous path. Scale is an issue in many industries but need not forestall competition. Auto companies have existing supplier agreements and dealer networks that give them competitive advantages, yet Tesla is growing anyway. Facebook benefits from network effects, yet TikTok and Zoom have gained millions of consumers through savvy marketing and products that people want. McDonald’s is the largest restaurant chain in the world, yet new entrants regularly find space in the market. 

All of which brings us back to Bismarck. The Iron Chancellor once wrote that “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.” Let’s hope that DOJ’s lawsuit keeps the focus where it should be: not on the outdated idea that the government needs to cut big companies down to size, but on the goal of enhancing consumer welfare.

Kelo v. City of New London after Ten Years — Book Review, by Joel C. Mandelman — November 6, 2015

Kelo v. City of New London after Ten Years — Book Review, by Joel C. Mandelman

The Grasping Hand: Kelo v. City of New London & the Limits of Eminent Domain by Ilya Somin, University of Chicago Press – 2015

In his book, The Grasping Hand: New London and the Limits of Eminent Domain, Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University Law School, traces the history of eminent domain and 5th Amendment takings from colonial times to the 2005 Supreme Court decision in Kelo v City of New London.  This is not a minor intellectual topic. The protection of the rights of private property owners is a cornerstone of any free country and of any free market economy.  In the United States, the 5th Amendment to the Constitution provides that, “private property shall [not] be taken for public use without payment of just compensation” (emphasis added.)  Notwithstanding these limiting words, the U.S. Supreme Court has sanctioned the government (primarily local and state governments) taking of private property and its transfer to other private parties whose use of it may be of little benefit to the general public.

The most recent example of this disfigurement of the Constitution was found in New London, Connecticut where, in 2005, the Court sanctioned the seizure of several private homes so that New London could transfer the property to the Pfizer pharmaceutical corporation in order to build a new corporate headquarters, a luxury hotel, and a corporate conference center.  The principal authority for this seizure was a 1954 Supreme Court ruling in Berman v Parker in which the Court held that a seizure need not be for a traditional public purpose, i.e. a school, a hospital, or a highway, but that the seizure merely have a “public purpose” such as producing greater tax revenues by ending “urban blight”.  (Whether the seized property was, in fact, blighted is left to the judicially unreviewed discretion of the government agency seizing the property.)  The saddest irony of the Kelo case was that, after all of the litigation, and the loss of scores of homes, Pfizer changed its mind and never built the planned corporate park and hotel.

The vast majority of seizures — since the Berman decision more than 80 percent of all private property condemnations — have been for such non-public uses such as building sports arenas, corporate office space, and general urban renewal and not for traditional public uses such as building schools or highways.  The Supreme Court’s rationalization has always been that since “everyone benefits” from a neighborhood being generally improved, there is an inherent “public purpose” to the seizure. Thus, even if the seizure was not for a traditional public use, it is sanctioned by the 5th Amendment.  That this is not what the plain language of the 5th Amendment states seems to have escaped the Court’s notice.

As Somin discusses, courts have been reluctant to second guess what a state legislature or a city council thinks is “blight” requiring government action to eliminate it.  This judicial reluctance is a moral and constitutional cop-out. There has been no reluctance on the part of federal or state judges to second guess the legitimacy of search warrants, confessions, the providing of a fair trial (i.e. due process of law), the scope of government limitations on freedom of speech or the press, the scope of the right to bear arms or the meaning of the 14th Amendment’s equal protection and due process clauses; so why the reluctance to judge the validity of takings under the 5th Amendment? No explanation is offered, nor have judges ever tried to explain their sudden judicial restraint in this particular area of constitutional law.

Somin traces the history of 5th Amendment takings dating back to post-colonial times when many takings were made for the purpose of building privately owned dams that had a generalized public benefit by creating water power or the construction of privately owned turnpikes.  Many of the more controversial public benefit takings did not start until the New Deal, or thereafter, when urban renewal became all the rage. The trend became the seizure of private property – which typically had housing already on it – in order to use it for the building of massive public housing projects. That many of those public housing projects later became worse slums than the smaller, privately owned “slums” that they “renewed” is discussed at some length in the book. Sadly, no government official, or agency, has ever been held accountable for these widespread, often well publicized, failures. As Somin discusses, much of the impetus for these renewal projects came not from elected legislators or elected executive branch officials but rather from real estate and construction industry developers who were also major sources of campaign funds.

Perhaps the most outrageous example of crony-capitalism seizures of private property was the infamous Poletown case, in which the City of Detroit seized thousands of private homes so that General Motors could build an automobile factory.  The Michigan Supreme Court sanctioned this theft on the grounds that the promised creation of 5,000 new jobs was a public use justifying the seizure of thousands of private homes and businesses. The cruelest irony was that fewer than half of the promised jobs were ever created and, several years later, a newly constituted Michigan Supreme Court partially reversed its Poletown decision in County of Wayne v. Hathcock, allowing takings in “blighted” areas but prohibiting takings for economic development.

The public reaction to the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2005 Kelo decision was swift and harsh. It was widely denounced as a threat to all private property rights. After all, if Kelo were followed to its logical conclusion, there would be nothing to stop the government from seizing 100 private homes so that a private developer could construct a high rise apartment that would pay more in local property taxes.

The problem is that many of the legislative attempts to prevent another Kelo-like case from ever happening again were half-hearted and possibly made in bad faith.  Although state laws were changed to bar 5th Amendment takings for economic development, a gaping – and likely intentional – loophole was left in those statues. There was no prohibition of takings to end undefined, judicially unreviewable, allegations of economic or social “blight.”  Almost any taking barred on economic development grounds could still be “justified” on the grounds that the affected property was “blighted.”

Somin carefully traces and analyzes both the history of the takings clause and the development of the “public purpose versus public use” expansion of its scope to the point where no private property is truly safe from any government bureaucrat or private developer with enough political clout to get its way.  Many of the state laws passed in response to the Kelo decision need to be substantially strengthened and federal law needs to be rewritten to bar illegitimate seizures of private property for other private, or quasi-private uses that primarily benefit the political party controlling the local government and its crony-capitalist allies.

This is an important book that, because of its arcane Constitutional premise, has not received the widespread publicity that it deserves. The Kelo decision and the weak responses to it by many state legislatures have left many citizens with a false sense of security.  Eternal vigilance truly is the price of liberty and greater vigilance, and efforts, are required to prevent Kelo from rearing its ugly, if somewhat shrunken, head again.

Joel C. Mandelman is an attorney practicing in Arlington, Virginia.  He has filed amicus briefs with the U.S. Supreme Court on behalf of Abigail Fisher in her challenge to the University of Texas’ racially preferential admissions policies and on behalf of the State of Michigan in defense of its state constitutional amendment barring all racial preferences in college admissions, government hiring and government contracting.  See the Contributors page for more about Mr. Mandelman.  Email him at joelcm1947@gmail.com.

(Correction, Nov. 8:  An earlier version of this post misstated the holding in Hathcock as fully reversing the Poletown case. Ed.)

(Correction, Nov. 20:  In an email to this site’s administrator, Professor Somin points out that “Pfizer was not going to be the new owner or developer of the condemned property.  As explained in the book, they lobbied for the project and hoped to benefit from it, but were not going to own or develop the land themselves.” Ed.)

What Does King v. Burwell Have to Do with the Antitrust Rule of Reason? A Lot – By Theodore A. Gebhard — July 15, 2015

What Does King v. Burwell Have to Do with the Antitrust Rule of Reason? A Lot – By Theodore A. Gebhard

The first Justice John Marshall Harlan is probably best remembered for being the sole dissenter in Plessy v. Ferguson, the notorious 1896 Supreme Court decision that found Louisiana’s policy of “separate but equal” accommodations for blacks and whites to satisfy the equal protection requirements of the 14th Amendment.  Harlan, a strict textualist, saw no color distinctions in the plain language of the 14th Amendment or anywhere else in what he described as a color-blind Constitution.  Harlan’s textualism did not end there, however.  It was also evident fifteen years later in one of the most famous and impactful antitrust cases in Supreme Court history, Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey v. U.S. The majority opinion in that case, in important respects, mirrored Chief Justice John Roberts’ reasoning in King v. Burwell.  Like King, the majority opinion in Standard Oil was written by the Chief Justice, Edward White in this instance, and in both cases, the majority reasoned that Congress did not actually mean what the clear and plain words of the statute at issue said.  Although concurring in the narrow holding of liability, Justice Harlan in Standard Oil, as Justice Antonin Scalia in his dissent in King, criticized forcefully what he believed to be the majority’s rank display of judicial legislation and usurpation of Congress’s function to fix statutes that may otherwise have harsh policy consequences.  Indeed, Standard Oil demonstrates that both Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Scalia had ample precedent in Supreme Court history.

The Standard Oil case was about whether John D. Rockefeller’s corporate empire violated the Sherman Antitrust Act, enacted 21 years earlier in 1890 and which prohibited monopolization, attempted monopolization, and “every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce .”  Harlan believed that under the facts of the case, liability could be found within the plain language of the statute.  The majority likewise found that Standard Oil violated the Act, but did so by dint of construing the Act in a way that the Court had previously rejected on several occasions.  Specifically, Chief Justice White used the opportunity to read into the Sherman Act the common law principle of “reasonableness” such that only “unreasonable” restraints of trade would be illegal.  That is, the Court rewrote the statute to say in effect, “every unreasonable contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade” is prohibited. In so doing, the Court, by judicial fiat, discarded the plain language of the statute and injected the so-called “rule of reason” into antitrust doctrine.

Notwithstanding that the Court had previously found otherwise, Chief Justice White found that the 51rst Congress must have had in mind the common law focus on unreasonable restraints in trade when it drafted the Sherman Act.  Otherwise, he believed, the operation of the statute could give discordant results.  The fact that the Congress did not make this qualification explicit was of no matter; White’s clairvoyance was sufficient to discern and correct the textual oversight and Congress’s true intent.  Harlan, however, saw this as unwarranted judicial activism and harmful appropriation of the “constitutional functions of the legislative branches of government.”  Echoing today’s concerns about judicial overreach, Harlan worried that this constitutionally unauthorized usurpation of legislative power “may well cause some alarm for the integrity of our institutions.”

Moreover, in his long and detailed concurrence, Harlan forcefully argued that it is not the Court’s function to change the plain meaning of statutes, whether or not that meaning reflects actual legislative intent.  That is, a judge’s role is to look only at the four corners of a statute, and no more.  It is up to the legislature to fix a statute, if necessary, not the judge.  This principle was even more applicable in the case at hand.  Here, Harlan believed, the plain language of the Act did in fact reflect the actual legislative intent.  Thus, the majority’s contrary position was even more egregious.  That is, the majority simply substituted its preferred reading of the statute 21 years after the fact, notwithstanding contrary contemporaneous evidence.

In this regard, Harlan pointed out that in 1890 the Congress was especially alarmed about growing concentrations of wealth, aggregation of capital among a few individuals, and economic power, all arising from the rapid industrialization that the United States had been experiencing over the previous decades.  Congress, in keeping with the spirit of the age, saw this changing economic climate as requiring bold new law focused on checking the power of trusts.  Specifically, the new climate “must be met firmly and by such statutory regulations as would adequately protect the people against oppression and wrong.”  For this reason, the 1890 Congress, in drafting the Sherman Act, intentionally abandoned common law principles as being too weak to deal with the economic circumstances of the day.  In addition, the Congress wrote criminal sanctions and third-party rights of action into the Act, none of which were a part of the common law.

Finally, Harlan pointedly explained that the Court had itself previously found in a well-known 1896 decision, U.S. v. Trans-Missouri Freight Assn., and reaffirmed in several later decisions that the Act’s prohibitions were not limited only to unreasonable restraints of trade, as that term is understood in the common law.  The first of these decisions, moreover, was based on far greater proximity to the time of the Act than the current case, and if the Congress thought the Court to be wrong, it had at least 15 years to correct the Court on this issue, but failed to do so, indicating that it approved of the Court’s construction.  Harlan thus saw White’s reversal of these holdings as no more than “an invasion by the judiciary of the constitutional domain of Congress — an attempt by interpretation to soften or modify what some regard as a harsh public policy.”

The activism of Chief Justice White in Standard Oil and nearly all of Justice Harlan’s concerns re-emerge in King v. Burwell.  In King, the principal issue was whether, under the Affordable Care and Patient Protection Act, an “Exchange” (an insurance marketplace) established by the federal government through the Secretary of Health and Human Services should be treated as an “Exchange” established by a state.  The question is important because under the ACAPA, an insurance exchange must be established in each state.  The statute provides, however, that if a state fails to establish such an exchange, the Secretary of H.H.S. will step in and establish a federally run exchange in that state.  The statute further provides that premium assistance will be available to lower income individuals to subsidize their purchase of health insurance when such insurance is purchased through an “Exchange established by the State.”  The Act defines “State” to mean each of the 50 United States plus the District of Columbia.  The plain language of the statute therefore precludes premium assistance to individuals purchasing health insurance on a federally run exchange.

Notwithstanding the plain language of the Act, however, Chief Justice Roberts, writing for the majority, held that premium assistance is available irrespective of whether the relevant exchange was established by a state or the Secretary.  In effect, the Chief Justice rewrote the pertinent clause, “Exchange established by the State,” to read instead “Exchange established by the State or the Federal Government.”

Much like Chief Justice White more than a century earlier, Chief Justice Roberts reasoned that the Congress could not have actually meant what the plain text of the Act said and that if this drafting oversight were not corrected by the Court, serious discordant consequences would result.  Also, like his predecessor, Chief Justice Roberts came to this conclusion despite evidence suggesting that the plain language is exactly what Congress intended.  According to the now public remarks of Jonathan Gruber, a chief architect of the Act, by limiting premium assistance only to purchases made on state-established exchanges, the Congress intended to create an incentive for each state to establish an exchange.  Even so, the Chief Justice discerned otherwise (perhaps because in hindsight the incentive did not work and, as a result, the consequences to the operation of the Act will be severe) and held that Congress must have intended “Exchange” for purposes of premium assistance to encompass both state and federal-established exchanges.  That is, just as Chief Justice White found, 21 years after its passage, that the plain text of the Sherman Act did not contain the full intended meaning of the words in the Act, Chief Justice Roberts similarly found the plain text of the ACAPA to fall short of its true meaning, notwithstanding that Congress did nothing to change the text since its 2010 enactment.

The parallel between the two cases does not stop with the majority opinions.  In King, Justice Scalia, a textualist like Justice Harlan, echoed the same concerns that Harlan had in Standard Oil. In his dissent, Scalia states, for example, that [t]he Court’s decision reflects the philosophy that judges should endure whatever interpretive distortions it takes in order to correct a supposed flaw in the statutory machin­ery.  That philosophy ignores the American people’s deci­sion to give Congress all legislative Powers enumerated in the Constitution. … We lack the prerogative to repair laws that do not work out in practice. … ‘If Congress enacted into law something different from what it intended, then it should amend the statute to conform to its intent.’”  That is, it is not up to the Court to usurp the legislative functions of Congress in order to fix the unintended consequences of a statute. Scalia goes on, “‘this Court has no roving license to disregard clear language simply on the view that Congress must have intended something broader.’”  Scalia concludes by suggesting that, to the detriment of “honest jurisprudence,” the majority “is prepared to do whatever it takes to uphold and assist [the laws it favors].”

So we can only conclude that the controversy surrounding Chief Justice Robert’s reasoning in King is anything but new.  Textualists have been sounding alarms about judicial overreach for decades.  Whether or not one believes that Chief Justice Roberts assumed a proper judicial role, it is undeniable that he had precedent for doing what he did.  Similarly, it is undeniable that Justice Scalia’s concerns are well grounded in Court history.  One other certainty is that just as the judicial creation of the “rule of reason” has had a significant impact on the administration of antitrust law in the last 100-plus years, Chief Justice Robert’s rewrite of the ACAPA will have a lasting impact, not only on the U.S. health insurance system, but in sustaining the self-authorized prerogatives of judges.

Theodore A. Gebhard is a law & economics consultant.  He advises attorneys on the effective use and rebuttal of economic and econometric evidence in advocacy proceedings.  He is a former Justice Department economist, Federal Trade Commission attorney, private practitioner, and economics professor.  He holds an economics Ph.D. as well as a J.D.  Nothing in this article is purported to be legal advice.  You can contact the author via email at theodore.gebhard@aol.com.

Forecasting Trends in Highly Complex Systems: A Case for Humility – By Theodore A. Gebhard — June 20, 2015

Forecasting Trends in Highly Complex Systems: A Case for Humility – By Theodore A. Gebhard

One can readily cite examples of gross inaccuracies in government macroeconomic forecasting.  Some of these inaccurate forecasts have been critical to policy formation that ultimately produced unintended and undesirable results.  (See, e.g., Professor Edward Lazear, “Government Forecasters Might as Well Use a Ouija Board,” Wall Street Journal, Oct. 16, 2014)  Likewise, the accuracy of forecasts of long-term global warming is coming under increasing scrutiny, at least among some climate scientists.  Second-looks are suggesting that climate science is anything but “settled.” (See, e.g., Dr. Steven Koonin, “Climate Science and Interpreting Very Complex Systems,” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 20, 2014)  Indeed, there are legitimate concerns about the ability to forecast directions in the macro-economy or long-term climate change reliably.  These concerns, in turn, argue for government officials, political leaders, and others to exercise a degree of humility when calling for urgent government action in either of these areas.  Without such humility, there is the risk of jumping into long-term policy commitments that may in the end prove to be substantially more costly than beneficial.

A common factor in macroeconomic and long-term climate forecasting is that both deal with highly complex systems.   When modeling such systems, attempts to capture all of the important variables believed to have a significant explanatory effect on the forecast prove to be incredibly difficult, if not entirely a fool’s errand.  Not only are there are many known candidates, there are likely many more unknown candidates.  In addition, specifying functional forms that accurately represent the relationships between the explanatory variables is similarly elusive.  Simple approximations based on theory are probably the best that can be achieved.  Failure to solve these problems — omitting important explanatory variables and incorrect functional forms – will seriously confound the statistical reliability of the estimated coefficients and, hence, any forecasts made from those estimates.

Inherent in macroeconomic forecasting is an additional complication.  Unlike models of the physical world where the data are insentient and relationships among variables are fixed in nature, computer models of the economy depend on data samples generated by motivated human action and relationships among variables that are anything but fixed over time.  Human beings have preferences, consumption patterns, and levels of risk acceptance that regularly change.  This constant change makes coefficient estimates derived from historical data prone to being highly unsound bases on which to forecast the future.  Moreover, there is little hope for improved reliability over time so long as human beings remain sentient actors.

By contrast, models of the physical world, such as climate science models, rely on unmotivated data and relationships among variables that are fixed in nature.  Unlike human beings, carbon dioxide molecules do not have changing tastes or preferences.  At least in principle, as climate science advances over time with better data quality, better identification of explanatory variables, and better understanding of the relationships among those variables, the forecasting accuracy of climate change models should improve.   Notwithstanding this promise, however, long-term climate forecasts remain problematic at present.  (See Koonin article linked above.)

Given the difficulty of modeling highly complex systems, it would seem that recent statements by some of our political, economic, and even religious leaders are overwrought.  President Obama and Pope Francis, for example, have claimed that climate change is among mankind’s most pressing problems.  (See here and here.)  They arrived at their views by dint of forecasts that predict significant climate change owing to human activity.  Each has urged that developed nations take dramatic steps to alter their energy mixes.  Similarly, the world’s central bankers, such as those at the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the International Monetary Fund regularly claim that their historically aggressive policies in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis are well grounded in what their elaborate computer models generate and, hence, are necessary and proper for the times.  Therefore, any attempts to modify the independence of these institutions to pursue those policies should be resisted, notwithstanding that the final outcome of these historic and unprecedented policies is yet unknown.

It is simply not possible, however, to have much confidence in any of these claims.   The macroeconomic and climate systems are too complex to be captured well in any computer model, and forecasts derived from such models therefore are highly suspect.  At the least, a prudent level of humility and a considerable degree of caution are in order among government planners, certainly before they pursue policies that risk irreversible unintended, and potentially very costly, consequences.

Theodore A. Gebhard is a law & economics consultant.  He advises attorneys on the effective use and rebuttal of economic and econometric evidence in advocacy proceedings.  He is a former Justice Department economist, Federal Trade Commission attorney, private practitioner, and economics professor.  He holds an economics Ph.D. as well as a J.D.  Nothing in this article is purported to be legal advice.  You can contact the author via email at theodore.gebhard@aol.com.

Is Economics a Science? – By Theodore A. Gebhard — May 15, 2015

Is Economics a Science? – By Theodore A. Gebhard

The great 20th Century philosopher of science, Karl Popper, famously defined a scientific question as one that can be framed as a falsifiable hypothesis.  Economics cannot satisfy that criterion.  No matter the mathematical rigor and internal logic of any theoretical proposition in economics, empirically testing it by means of econometrics necessarily requires that the regression equations contain stochastic elements to account for the complexity that characterizes the real world economy.  Specifically, the stochastic component accounts for all of the innumerable unknown and unmeasurable factors that cannot be precisely identified but nonetheless influence the economic variable being studied or forecasted.

What this means is that economists need never concede that a theory is wrong when their predictions fail to materialize.  There is always the ready excuse that the erroneous predictions were the fault of “noise” in the data, i.e., the stochastic component, not the theory itself.  It is hardly surprising then that economic theories almost never die and, even if they lie dormant for a while, find new life whenever proponents see opportunities to resurrect their pet views.  Since the 2008 financial crisis, even Nobel Prize winners can be seen dueling over macroeconomic policy while drawing on theories long thought to be buried.

A further consequence of the inability to falsify an economic theory is that economics orthodoxy is likely to survive indefinitely irrespective of its inability to generate reliable predictions on a consistent basis.  As Thomas Kuhn, another notable 20th Century philosopher of science, observed, scientific orthodoxy periodically undergoes revolutionary change whenever a critical mass of real world phenomena can no longer be explained by that orthodoxy.  The old orthodoxy must give way, and a new orthodoxy emerges.  Physics, for example, has undergone several such periodic revolutions.

It is clear, however, that, because economists never have to admit error in their pet theories, economics is not subject to a Kuhnian revolution.  Although there is much reason to believe that such a revolution is well overdue in economics, graduate student training in core neoclassical theory persists and is likely to persist for the foreseeable future, notwithstanding its failure to predict the events of 2008.  There are simply too few internal pressures to change the established paradigm.

All of this is of little consequence if mainstream economists simply talk to one another or publish their econometric estimates in academic journals merely as a means to obtain promotion and tenure.  The problem, however, is that the cachet of a Nobel Prize in Economic Science and the illusion of scientific method permit practitioners to market their pet ideological values as the product of science and to insert themselves into policy-making as expert advisors.  Significantly in this regard, econometric modeling is no longer chiefly confined to generating macroeconomic forecasts.  Increasingly, econometric forecasts are used as inputs into microeconomic policy-making affecting specific markets or groups and even are introduced as evidence in courtrooms where specific individual litigants have much at stake.  However, most policy-makers — let alone judges, lawyers, and other lay consumers of those forecasts — are not well-equipped to evaluate their reliability or to assign appropriate weight to them.  This situation creates the risk that value-laden theories and unreliable econometric predictions play a larger role in microeconomic policy-making, just as in macroeconomic policy-making, than can be justified by purported “scientific” foundation.

To be sure, economic theories can be immensely valuable in focusing one’s thinking about the economic world.  As Friedrich Hayek taught us, however, although good economics can say a lot about tendencies among economic variables (an important achievement), economics cannot do much more.  As such, the naive pursuit of precision by means of econometric modeling —  especially as applied to public policy — is fraught with danger and can only deepen well-deserved public skepticism about economists and economics.

Theodore A. Gebhard is a law & economics consultant.  He advises attorneys on the effective use and rebuttal of economic and econometric evidence in advocacy proceedings.  He is a former Justice Department economist, Federal Trade Commission attorney, private practitioner, and economics professor.  He holds an economics Ph.D. as well as a J.D.  Nothing in this article is purported to be legal advice.  You can contact the author via email at theodore.gebhard@aol.com.

Economics and Transparency in Antitrust Policy – By Theodore A. Gebhard — April 28, 2015

Economics and Transparency in Antitrust Policy – By Theodore A. Gebhard

A significant turning point in antitrust thinking began in the mid-1970s with the formal integration of microeconomic analysis into both antitrust policy and antitrust litigation.  At that time, the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission dramatically expanded their in-house economics staffs and ever since have increasingly relied on those staffs for strategic advice as well as technical analysis in policy and litigation.

For the most part, this integration of economics into antitrust thinking has been highly positive.  It has been instrumental to ensuring that the antitrust laws focus on what they are intended to do – promote consumer welfare.   Forty years later, however, economics has gone beyond its role as the intellectual undergirding of antitrust policy.  Today, no litigant tries an antitrust case without utilizing one or more economists as expert witnesses, as economic analysis has become the dominant evidence in antitrust enforcement.  In this regard, the pendulum may have swung too far.

Prior to the mid-1970s, economists, though creating a sizable academic literature, were largely absent in setting antitrust policy and rarely participated in litigation.  The result was that, for much of the history of antitrust, the enforcement agencies and the courts often condemned business practices that intuitively looked bad, but without much further consideration.  Good economics, however, is sometimes counter-intuitive.  Many of these older decisions did more to protect competitors from legitimate competition than protect competition itself.  Integrating sound economic thinking into enforcement policy was thus an important corrective.

Economic thinking has been most impactful on antitrust policy in two areas: unilateral business conduct and horizontal mergers.  Older antitrust thinking often conflated protecting competitors with protecting competition.  The most devastating critique of this confusion came from the so-called “Chicago School” of economics, and manifested itself to the larger antitrust legal community through Robert Bork’s seminal 1978 book, The Antitrust Paradox.  It is hard to exaggerate the impact that this book had on enforcement policy and on the courts.  Today, it is rare that unilateral conduct is challenged successfully, the courts having placed a de facto presumption of legality on such conduct and a heavy burden on plaintiffs to show otherwise.

Horizontal merger policy likewise had a checkered history prior to the mid-1970s.  Basically, any merger that increased market concentration, even if only slightly, was considered bad.  The courts by and large rubber-stamped this view.  This rigid thinking began to change, however, with the expanded roles of the economists at the DOJ and FTC.  The economists pointed out that, although change in market concentration is important, it is not dispositive in assessing whether a merger is anticompetitive.  Other factors must be considered such as the incentives for outside firms to divert existing capacity into the relevant market, the degree to which there are barriers to the entry of new capacity, the potential for the merger to create efficiencies, and the ability of post-merger firms to coordinate pricing.  Consideration of each of these economic factors was eventually formalized in merger guidelines issued in 1982 by the Reagan Administration’s DOJ.  These guidelines were joined by the FTC ten years later and amended to consider mergers that might be anticompetitive regardless of firms’ ability to coordinate prices.

Each of these developments led to far more sensible antitrust policy over the past four decades.  Today, however, economic thinking no longer merely provides broad policy guidance but, in the form of highly sophisticated statistical modeling, increasingly serves to be the principal evidence in specific cases.  Here, policy-making may now be exceeding the limits of economic science.  Friedrich Hayek famously described the difference between science and scientism, noting the pretentiousness of believing that economics can generate the kind of precision that the natural sciences can.  Yet, the enforcement agencies are approaching a point where their econometric analysis of market data in certain instances may be considered sufficiently “scientific” to determine enforcement decisions without needing to know much else about the businesses or products at issue.

Much of this is driven by advancements in cheap computing coincident with the widespread adoption of electronic data storage by businesses.  These developments have yielded a rich set of market data that can be readily obtained by subpoena, coupled with the ability to use that data as input into econometric estimation that can be done cheaply on a desktop.  So, for example, if it is possible to estimate the competitive effects of a merger directly, why bother with more traditional (and tedious) methodology that includes defining relevant markets and calculating concentration indexes?  In principle, even traditional documentary and testimonial evidence might be dispensed with, being unnecessary when there is hard “scientific” evidence available.

This view is worrisome for two reasons:  The first is the already stated Hayekian concern about the pretense of economic precision.  Any good statistician will tell you that econometrics is as much art as science.  Apart from this concern, however, an equally important worry is that antitrust enforcement policy is becoming too arcane in its attempt to be ever more economically sophisticated.  This means that it is increasingly difficult for businesspersons and their counsel to evaluate whether some specific conduct or transaction could be challenged, thus making even lawful business strategies riskier.  A basic principle of the rule of law is that the law must be understandable to those subject to it.

Regrettably, the Obama Administration has exacerbated this problem.  For example, some officials have indicated sympathy for so-called “Post-Chicago Economics,” whose proponents have set out highly stylized models that purport to show the possibility of anticompetitive harm from conduct that has not yet been reached by antitrust law.  Administration officials also rescinded a Bush Administration 2008 report that attempted to lay out clearer guidelines regarding when unilateral conduct might be challenged.  Although these developments have been mostly talk and not much action in the way of bringing novel cases, even mere talk increases legal uncertainty.

The Administration’s merger policy actions are more concrete.  The DOJ and FTC issued new guidelines in 2010 that, in an effort to be even more comprehensive, proliferated the number of variables that can be considered in merger analysis.  In some instances, these variables will be resistant to reliable measurement and relative weighting.  The consequence is that the new guidelines largely defeat the purpose of having guidelines – helping firms assess whether a prospective merger will be challenged.  Thus, firms considering a merger must often do so in the face of substantially more legal uncertainty and must also expend substantial funds on attorneys and consultants to navigate the maze of the guidelines. These factors likely deter at least some procompetitive mergers, thus forgoing potential social gains.

Antitrust policy certainly must remain grounded in good economics, and economic analysis is certainly probative evidence in individual cases.  But it is nonetheless appropriate to keep in mind that no legal regime can achieve perfection, and the marginal benefits from efforts to obtain ever greater economic sophistication must be weighed against the marginal costs of doing so.  When litigation devolves into simply a battle of expert witnesses whose testimony is based on arcane modeling that neither judges nor business litigants grasp well, something is wrong.

It is time to consider a modest return to simpler and more transparent enforcement policy that relies less on black box economics that pretends to be more scientific than it really is.  To be sure, clearer enforcement rules would not be without enforcement risk.  Some anticompetitive transactions could escape challenge.  But, procompetitive transactions that otherwise might have been deterred will be a social gain.  Moreover, substantial social cost savings can be expected when business decisions are made under greater legal clarity, when antitrust enforcement is administered more efficiently, and when litigation costs are substantially lower.  The goal of antitrust policy should not be perfection, but to maintain an acceptable level of workable competition within markets while minimizing the costs of doing so.  Simpler, clearer rules are the route to this end.

Theodore A. Gebhard is a law & economics consultant.  He advises attorneys on the effective use and rebuttal of economic and econometric evidence in advocacy proceedings.  He is a former Justice Department economist, Federal Trade Commission attorney, private practitioner, and economics professor.  He holds an economics Ph.D. as well as a J.D.  Nothing in this article is purported to be legal advice.  You can contact the author via email at theodore.gebhard@aol.com.

The FTC’s Supreme Court Victory in N.C. Dental: A Rare Win for Both Libertarians and Regulators – By Theodore A. Gebhard —

The FTC’s Supreme Court Victory in N.C. Dental: A Rare Win for Both Libertarians and Regulators – By Theodore A. Gebhard

[Originally posted at Gayton Law Blog, April 1, 2015]

The Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) recent Supreme Court victory in the North Carolina State Board of Dental Examiners (NCSB or Board) case brought together in common cause both economic libertarians and federal antitrust regulators — groups often at odds with each other respecting important philosophical and policy principles. The FTC’s win, however, gave both groups much reason to celebrate.

The question before the Court was whether unilateral anticompetitive actions of the NCSB, a state-created body, were immune from antitrust law under the “state action” doctrine. The state action doctrine arises from Parker v. Brown, a 1943 Supreme Court decision that sought to reconcile the Sherman Antitrust Act with the constitutional principle of federalism. Federalism is the idea that the U.S. Constitution recognizes both national and state government sovereignty by giving certain limited powers to the national government but reserving other powers to the individual states.

Because the Constitution is the highest law and therefore always trumps statutes, the Court carved out immunity from the Sherman Act for anticompetitive actions of states acting in their sovereign capacity, which includes regulating private actors in a way that restricts competition. In 1980 the Court extended this carve out to include the anticompetitive actions of non-sovereign bodies upon a showing that the actions were the result of clearly articulated state policy and were actively supervised by the state. (See, Cal. Liquor Dealers v. Midcal Aluminum, Inc.) The active supervision requirement ensures that the anticompetitive consequences are only those that the state has deliberately chosen to tolerate in exchange for other public policy goals.

The NCSB was established by the North Carolina Dental Act to be “the agency of the State for the regulation of the practice of dentistry.” In that capacity, the NCSB has authority to administer the licensing of dentists and to file suit to enjoin the unlawful practice of dentistry. Starting in 2006, the NCSB began to send strongly worded cease and desist letters to non-dentist providers of teeth whitening services. People in this occupation grew in numbers in North Carolina – as well as other states — as the popularity of these services increased over a period of years. Often the non-dentist providers are simply individual entrepreneurs operating out of kiosks in shopping malls and similar venues. Licensed dentists also provide teeth whitening services, but typically at substantially higher fees.

Significantly, the N.C. Dental Act is silent with respect to whether teeth whitening constitutes the practice of dentistry. Nonetheless, the NCSB determined that it was, though without hearing or comment and without any independent confirmation by any other state official. In so doing, the Board found that the non-dentists were unlawfully practicing dentistry. Instead of obtaining a judicial order to enjoin the non-dentists as prescribed by statute, however, the NCSB sent out cease and desist letters, which contained strong language including a warning that the non-dentist teeth whiteners were engaging in a criminal act. The letters effectively stopped the provision of teeth whitening services by non-dentists.

In 2010 the FTC sued the Board on antitrust grounds. In response, the NCSB asserted that it was entitled to immunity under the state action doctrine. The FTC rejected that claim and in an administrative hearing ruled that the cease and desist letters constituted unlawful concerted action to exclude non-dentist teeth whiteners from the North Carolina market for such services. The FTC further found that that this exclusion resulted in actual anticompetitive effects in the form of less consumer choice and higher prices. The Commission then ordered the NCSB to stop issuing cease and desist letters to non-dentist providers of teeth whitening services without first obtaining a judicial order.

Key to the FTC’s antitrust finding was that, under the N.C. Dental Act, the majority of NCSB members must be practicing dentists elected to the Board by the community of N.C. licensed dentists. Moreover, throughout the relevant period, most, if not all, of the dentist members of the NCSB performed teeth whitening in their respective practices. In addition, the Board’s actions came after it received several complaints from licensed dentists about the competition from non-dentists teeth whiteners and the lower fees that these providers charged. Only a few dentists suggested that teeth whitening by non-dentists might be harmful to customers. The FTC found the validity of such public health claims tenuous.

The NCSB appealed the FTC’s rejection of its state action defense. The appeal reached the Supreme Court in 2014, and in an opinion handed down last February, the Court held that, under the record facts, the NCSB does not have antitrust immunity. In reaching this conclusion, the Court found that, although the NCSB is a creature of the state and could properly be labeled a state agency, it is nonetheless a non-sovereign body and thus subject to the active supervision requirement for antitrust immunity to obtain. This requirement was not satisfied. (Not at issue was whether the state had a clearly articulated policy to regulate the practice of dentistry. All parties stipulated to this factor.)

The Court’s finding that the NCSB is a non-sovereign body is the key to the decision, and rightly focuses on substance over form. In particular, the Court focused on the fact that the NCSB is majority-controlled by active market participants and that its decisions in this case were unsupervised by any state government officials. Given these circumstances, the Court found there to be a high risk that Board decisions were and are influenced by self-interest instead of public welfare. When this risk is present, it trumps any formal label given by a state to a regulatory body. The Court specifically held that a “state board on which a controlling number of decision makers are active market participants in the occupation the board regulates must satisfy [the] active supervision requirement in order to invoke state action antitrust immunity.”

The practical result of this holding is that the FTC’s finding of illegal anticompetitive conduct stands. This outcome will no doubt yield important benefits to North Carolina citizens. Teeth whitening entrepreneurs can seek to re-enter the market, and consumers of those services will enjoy lower fees resulting from the increased competition. These will be tangible, observable benefits.

Critically, however, the Court’s holding also has important legal and policy implications beyond North Carolina. States will have to re-evaluate their regulatory boards and account for the fact that giving unsupervised control over who is qualified to compete to boards comprised of members whose incomes depend on those decisions may not produce good outcomes. Going forward, states must give greater care not only to establishing such boards, but also to overseeing their decisions. Decisions made behind merely the facade of a state-created agency will be insufficient for a board to obtain state action immunity.

Additionally, the Court’s holding recognizes that license requirements that do not rest on firm evidence of a risk to public health absent licensure serve not only to protect incumbents from healthy competition, but unnecessarily infringe on basic economic liberty and the right to earn a living. As such, the holding implicitly elevates economic liberty to a position as prominent as the antitrust concern. In so doing, the holding is an important victory for economic libertarians, just as it is for antitrust enforcers. It is a rare example of an instance when groups with economic philosophies that often diverge can come together in common celebration. A great win for both.

Theodore A. Gebhard advises attorneys on the effective use and rebuttal of economic and econometric evidence in advocacy proceedings.  He is a former Justice Department antitrust economist, Federal Trade Commission attorney, private practitioner, and economics professor.  Mr. Gebhard holds an economics Ph.D. as well as a J.D.  Nothing in this article is purported to be legal advice.  Facts or circumstances described in the article may have changed by the time of posting. You can contact the author via email at theodore.gebhard@aol.com.

Amazon: Bully or Not? – By Theodore A. Gebhard —

Amazon: Bully or Not? – By Theodore A. Gebhard

[Originally posted at Gayton Law Blog, August 26, 2014]

Several articles in the business press during recent months have reported on a dispute between book publisher, Hachette, and book distributor, Amazon.  The dispute centers on the pricing of e-books.  Amazon wants a larger slice of the profits on e-book sales, and to obtain that larger slice, it wants Hachette to lower its wholesale prices.  Hachette, which publishes James Patterson among other best-selling authors, is resisting.  In turn, Amazon has removed Hachette titles from its pre-order list.  That list is important to publishers because pre-order sales go into the initial sales figures for a new title, better enabling the title to achieve best seller status and the marketing boost that this status brings about.

In the reporting on this dispute, Amazon’s tactics have been described, among other pejoratives, as “bullying” and “strong-arming.”  Hachette after all is a relatively small publisher, and Amazon is the world’s largest book seller.  The European press has gone even further.  The Financial Times, for example, asks whether Amazon might be “using its dominance in one market – ereaders – to boost its dominance in another – ebooks.”

Before jumping on the band wagon condemning Amazon, however, some understanding of relevant facts and relevant law is in order.  To begin with, we might ask why Hachette and Amazon are negotiating an agreement at this time?  The answer is because Hachette, along with Apple and four other publishers (Simon & Schuster, Macmillan, Penguin, and HarperCollins) were accused by the Justice Department in 2012 of conspiring with each other to raise e-book prices in violation of Section 1 of the Sherman Antitrust Act, which outlaws anticompetitive agreements.  According to Justice Department documents, the alleged unlawful conspiracy consisted of creating a collective plan to force Amazon to increase its $9.99 price point for trade e-books.

As set out in Justice Department documents, Apple, in conjunction with its launch of the I-Pad in January 2010, desired simultaneously to enter the e-book retailing business, but was concerned about its ability to compete with Amazon on price.  In a plan largely designed by Apple but implemented by the five publishers, pressure was put on Amazon to agree to new distribution agreements by which the publishers would set the retail prices of trade e-books instead of Amazon.  Rather than buy the books at wholesale from the publishers, Amazon would act as a selling agent and simply receive a fixed commission on each sale.  Later, a sixth publisher, Random House, adopted this business model as well for many of its e-books, resulting in nearly 50% of all trade e-books distributed and sold under this agency system.  The almost immediate consequence was a significant increase in the price of trade e-books.

Hachette and each of the other four publishers subsequently reached a settlement with the Justice Department.  Apple went to trial and lost in an opinion filed in July 2013 finding Apple’s conduct illegal.  Although not admitting guilt, the settling defendants, including Hachette, agreed to abandon any control of retail pricing of e-books with any retailer, and to arrive independently at new distribution agreements with Amazon.  This then is the basis for the current negotiations between Hachette and Amazon. As is apparent, Hachette put itself into this position by dint of its prior concerted actions with its competitors.

If anything, to date Amazon’s presence in the retail e-book market, by resisting efforts on the part of publishers to raise prices, has been a boon to consumers. Implicit in the Justice Department’s litigation is a recognition of this fact. Further, as Apple, Google, and others, such as the publishers themselves, enter and expand into retail e-book sales, price competition will only increase.  The key is the ability to compete on price and not have price uniformly set by upstream anticompetitive agreements.

As for Amazon’s alleged dominance in e-book readers (the Kindle) and the alleged potential to leverage that dominance anticompetitively into e-book sales, few, if any, real world facts suggest that this presents a serious antitrust concern at this time, at least under U.S. law.  Section 2 of the Sherman Act goes after conduct that is both something other than “competition on the merits” and results in actual monopolization or a dangerous probability of that result. Simply having a large market share — even a very large one — is not a violation of Section 2.  Section 2 is concerned only with obtaining or maintaining a monopoly by anticompetitive means, i.e., a means that harms consumer welfare.

Although the Kindle device links to Amazon’s Kindle Store, it is possible to download many e-books obtained elsewhere. Some may first have to be converted to the Kindle format (Mobi), however. Calibre is a free download conversion program that will do this in a few minutes or less. Thus, there generally are no significant obstacles to using the Kindle to read e-books obtained elsewhere. Furthermore, tablets such as the I-Pad are e-readers as well. In fact, some might argue that they are superior to the Kindle insofar as they can display content in color such as illustrations or exhibits in art books. Hence, if anything, we are likely to see considerable erosion of Amazon’s share of e-reader sales in the future, eliminating any potential to use those sales as leverage in the retail e-book market.

Notwithstanding the above, given the global marketplace, it is useful to note that there are differences between U.S. antitrust law and competition law in other jurisdictions.  Firms operating globally must be cognizant of these differences.  As noted, the Sherman Act does not outlaw conduct by dominant firms unless that conduct is detrimental to competition itself, i.e., it results in harm to consumer welfare. Indeed, the U.S. Supreme Court has often stated that it is axiomatic that the U.S. antitrust laws are intended for the “protection of competition, not competitors.” By contrast, competition law within the European Union is more suspect of firms with dominant market shares, and may be more protective of competitors and suppliers. Conduct and practices that may not be unlawful under U.S. law may be unlawful under EU law.  Not only Amazon, but any global enterprise, should take care to be informed about and in compliance with all relevant law.

Theodore A. Gebhard advises attorneys on the effective use and rebuttal of economic and econometric evidence in advocacy proceedings.  He is a former Justice Department antitrust economist, Federal Trade Commission attorney, private practitioner, and economics professor.  Mr. Gebhard holds an economics Ph.D. as well as a J.D.  Nothing in this article is purported to be legal advice.  Facts or circumstances described in the article may have changed by the time of posting. You can contact the author via email at theodore.gebhard@aol.com.